Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett UFC 324 Prediction – 1/24/2026

Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett will headline UFC 324 on Saturday night in a showdown for the interim UFC lightweight championship inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Gaethje is a veteran former interim champion known for his explosive striking and relentless pace. He meets Pimblett, the brash and improving Brit who has steamrolled his way up the lightweight rankings. Before these top-five lightweights face off for the interim crown, you will find my Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett prediction below.

Our Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Pick

Tale of the Tape

Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Preview

Gaethje’s career has been defined by high-octane striking and unforgiving leg kicks that wear down even elite opponents. A former interim champion and perennial top-five lightweight, he has proven his power with 20 knockouts among his 26 wins and a pace that often overwhelms his challengers. His recent win over Rafael Fiziev by decision showcased his ability to go the long haul, something he may have to do against a grinder in Pimblett.

Pimblett has risen rapidly within UFC. Riding a nine-fight win streak, including an undefeated 7-0 UFC run, he brings a dangerous combination of submission expertise and forward pressure. His black-belt level grappling and 10 career submission wins present a unique threat to Gaethje, who prefers to stand up and exchange strikes. Pimblett has yet to face a high-level opponent in their prime during his time in UFC. Gaethje’s best days are also behind him, and “Paddy the Baddy” will try to take full advantage on Saturday night.

The fight shapes up as a clash of styles. Gaethje is a heavy hitter with punishing leg kicks and relentless boxing. He is going up against a submission artist who can drag opponents to the ground with ease. Gaethje’s takedown defense has been respectable, but Pimblett’s pace and creativity could create openings for him to control things on the ground. Should Pimblett secure top control early, Gaethje could be unable to impose his will on his feet.

Betting Odds

• Gaethje moneyline: +190
• Pimblett moneyline: -230
• Over/Under 2.5 rounds: Over -120, Under -110
• Method of Victory:
  • Pimblett by Submission: +130
  • Pimblett by KO/TKO/DQ: +350
  • Pimblett by Decision: +550
  • Gaethje by Submission: +2800
  • Gaethje by KO/TKO/DQ: +400
  • Gaethje by Decision: +550

Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Prediction

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.