Charles Oliveira will face Mateusz Gamrot in the main event of UFC Fight Night at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday. This lightweight bout is a big one in the division, with two top 10 lightweights trying to get an important win. Gamrot is stepping in on short notice to replace the injured Rafael Fiziev in a fight that is a pick ’em according to oddsmakers. Here, you can find my breakdown of this fight, including my Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot prediction.
Our Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Pick
- Pick: Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision
- Confidence: 3/5
Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Charles Oliveira | Mateusz Gamrot |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 35 | 34 |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’10” |
| Reach | 74″ | 70.5″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Record | 35-11-0 | 25-3-0 |
Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Preview
Charles Oliveira is known for his exceptional submission skills. He holds the record for the most finishes and submission victories in UFC history. But his recent knockout loss to Ilia Topuria has raised questions about his durability, especially against opponents with strong striking abilities. Oliveira’s grappling is always his most dangerous weapon. But his defense has been inconsistent against both strikes and takedowns. That could be a problem against someone as dangerous as Gamrot.
Mateusz Gamrot is stepping in to fight on short notice due to an injury to Rafael Fiziev. His wrestling is particularly impressive, with an average of 5.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and a takedown defense rate of 90%. Gamrot’s striking is also solid and his ability to control the pace and dictate where the fight takes place will be incredibly important.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline Odds: The fight is closely expected to be closely contested, with both fighters coming in at -110 to get the win.
- Over/Under: The over/under is set at 3.5 rounds. The over is set at +100, while the under is at -130.
- Method of Victory: Gamrot’s path to victory is likely through a decision, as he will try to control this fight on the ground. Oliveira will try and get one of his trademark submission wins, but that could be hard to do against a fighter with Gamrot’s strengths.
- Oliveira has lost three of his last five fights.
- Gamrot has won four of his last five fights going into this main event bout.
Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Prediction
This fight is going to be an interesting test of both fighters’ ability to control things on the ground. Gamrot is a wrestler by nature and will try to bend Oliveira to his will, while Oliveira will try to collect a quick submission by capitalizing on any mistakes made by Gamrot on the mat. I think that Gamrot will avoid making any mistakes that Oliveira can capitalize on and I will take Gamrot to come away with the win in this bout from Brazil.
