Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes Prediction – 9/27/2025

Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes will meet as UFC returns to Perth on Saturday. Ulberg arrives riding a dominant run and is angling for his first real chance at light heavyweight championship contention. He will attempt to take out another top 10 light heavyweight to earn that opportunity. Before the action begins in the main event from Australia, continue reading to get my Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes prediction.

Our Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes Pick

• Pick: Carlos Ulberg to win via KO
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes Preview

This fight looks even in terms of physical attributes. Both men stand 6’4″ with identical reach. But the differences in this fight lie in style, form, and momentum. Ulberg is a technically sharp kickboxer with steadily improving defensive and grappling tools. In his last two outings, he has edged out Octagon veterans by decision. He got a decision win over Jan Błachowicz in March 2025 and Volkan Oezdemir in late 2024. Ulberg lands high volumes of significant strikes and connects with over 50% accuracy.

Reyes is in the second act of his career. His early run as a top contender was derailed by knockout losses and health issues. But since his return, he’s rattled off three straight stoppage wins over Dustin Jacoby, Anthony Smith, and Nikita Krylov. His striking volume is lower than that of Ulberg, but he has knockout power and will want to to make a statement in this fight. Reyes is not known for grinding out long decision wins. He tends to either land big or get finished himself and that could be the case in a fight with up to five rounds.

In matchups like this, range control and patience can define the outcome. Ulberg will look to use his jab, leg kicks, and straight attacks to keep Reyes at bay and build cumulative damage. Reyes will seek to disrupt timing, cut angles, land flush counters, and force Ulberg into risky exchanges. Given Ulberg’s steadier style and refined defense, he has the tools to negate many of Reyes’ threats. But if Reyes lands early, things could flip quickly.

Betting Insights

• Ulberg is favored to win this fight at -250. Reyes is +205 to get the victory.
• The over/under for total rounds is set at 2.5. The under is favored at -154, while the over is +120.
• Ulberg has won two straight fights by decision going into this fight.
• Reyes has won three straight fights by knockout. His last six fights have all been decided inside the distance.

Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes Prediction

Ulberg is in a better position at this stage of his career than Reyes. While Reyes is on a three-fight win streak, he is less proven over five rounds in recent years. I expect Ulberg to use his range, dictate the pace of the fight, and avoid falling into wild exchanges. Midway through, he should start opening up combinations and use his superior gas tank to do damage. I expect the fight to stretch into the later rounds, where Ulberg’s steadiness and conditioning will allow him to catch Reyes with a knockout shot to close the show.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.