Wrigley Field will host a rivalry game on the Fourth of July as the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs play the second game of their weekend series. The Cubs have won eight of their last ten games and sit second in the NL Central at 49-39, but St. Louis just delivered a statement on Friday, hammering Chicago 17-1 to push its own record to 46-39 and pull within striking distance in third place. Shota Imanaga takes the ball for Chicago, while Kyle Leahy tries to keep St. Louis rolling into the holiday weekend.
Our Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction
- Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (+135)
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Cardinals vs Cubs Model Projection
- Score Projection: Cardinals 6 – Cubs 5
- Win Probability: Cardinals 53%, Cubs 47%
Imanaga has been homer-prone all year and was already torched by this same Cardinals lineup less than 2 weeks ago, while Leahy’s grounder-heavy sinker and improved command give St. Louis a starter capable of keeping the Cubs’ power bats in check for 5 or 6 innings. Add in a Cardinals club that has won 4 of its last 5 games, and the plus-money price on the visitors looks like the smarter side of the betting markets.
This should be a competitive, back-and-forth affair with both bullpens shaky enough to keep the door open in the middle innings. A couple of extra-base hits against Imanaga’s mistakes should be enough to tip a close game in the Cardinals’ favor.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals (46-39) vs Chicago Cubs (49-39)
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 4, 2026, 8:08 PM ET / 7:08 PM CT
- Starting Pitchers: Kyle Leahy (STL, RHP, 6-4, 4.09 ERA) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC, LHP, 5-6, 4.30 ERA)
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: FOX
Cardinals vs Cubs Same Game Parlay
- Leg 1: Cardinals Moneyline (+135)
- Leg 2: Over 8 Total Runs (-118)
- Leg 3: Jordan Walker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+133)
Total Parlay Odds: +305
Walker has been the Cardinals’ most consistent power source, with a team-high 19 home runs and a .290 average against a Cubs staff that owns a 4.38 team ERA and a 1.27 team WHIP. Pairing his total bases prop with the Over plays into a game featuring 2 lineups that rank inside the top 20 in home runs, plus a Cubs bullpen that’s been stretched thin by injuries. The Cardinals moneyline ties the parlay together, giving bettors a live underdog price attached to a game script that favors St. Louis cashing in on Imanaga’s tendency to allow hard contact.
Cardinals vs Cubs Home Run Prop
Dansby Swanson to hit a home run (+610 at DraftKings Sportsbook) is the play here. Swanson has 7 home runs over his last ten games, including a three-homer effort against San Diego, and he’s squaring up virtually everything Chicago’s coaches throw at him right now. Leahy, meanwhile, has allowed 9 home runs, one of the higher rates among Cardinals starters. A hot hitter against a homer-prone arm at a park that plays small in the summer heat is exactly the kind of spot where plus-money home run props cash.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Season series: Cardinals lead 3-1 through 4 meetings in 2026, including a 17-1 rout on Friday.
- St. Louis is 23-18 on the road this season.
- Chicago is 26-18 at home this season.
Stat Comparison
| Category | St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | .246 | .245 |
| OPS | .716 | .754 |
| wOBA | .316 | .333 |
| wRC+ | 101 | 112 |
| Team ERA | 4.24 | 4.23 |
| xFIP | 4.30 | 4.25 |
These teams are right next to each other in the standings and their stats accurately reflect how small the gap between them is. St. Louis is more than capable of going toe-to-toe with the Cubs at Wrigley, as we saw on Friday. I’ll take the Cardinals at plus money in a game where the margins should be tight one way or the other.
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