The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates will cap off their three-game series on Thursday. The Pirates have taken the first two games of this series and have dealt multiple blows to the playoff hopes of their NL Central rivals. Before this game, continue reading to get my Pirates vs Reds prediction to see if I think Pittsburgh can play spoiler again.
Our Pirates vs Reds Pick
- Pick: Reds moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 25, 2025, 12:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs Nick Lodolo (CIN)
- Stadium: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Pittsburgh will send Braxton Ashcraft to the mound. He enters with a 4-3 record and a 2.62 ERA, with opponents hitting about .225 against him. He averages 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings and has shown solid command and the ability to get ahead in counts.
Nick Lodolo will take the mound for Cincinnati. He is 8-8 with a 3.44 ERA and has a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio. He last pitched in a spot where he allowed four earned runs in 4.2 innings against Chicago. The Reds will look for Lodolo to deliver a steady performance under pressure against the team at the bottom of their division.
Recent Team Streaks & Context
The Reds come in at 80-78 and are striving to control their postseason destiny. Cincinnati trails the New York Mets by a game in the race for the final National League Wild Card spot. A loss would tighten their margin for error. The Pirates are 69-89 and playing spoiler rather than contender. But the Pirates have won four in a row after beating the Reds in 11 innings in Wednesday’s game.
Betting Trends & H2H
- The season series between the Pirates and Reds is tied 6-6 going into this game.
- This is the final regular-season matchup between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The winner of this game will win this NL Central season series by a 7-6 margin.
- Pittsburgh has won two straight games against Cincy in this series.
- The over/under is 1-1 over the first two games of this three-game series.
Pirates vs Reds Model Projection
Score Projection: Pirates 3 – Reds 4
Win Probability: Pirates 38%, Reds 62%
Final Thoughts
The Reds have squandered opportunities to move up in the NL Wild Card race in this series. But I think they will take advantage of their final chance to beat the Pirates on Thursday afternoon. Lodolo is a solid starter and should outclass Ashcraft in the early innings. From there, the Reds will hold onto their lead and shift all of the pressure on New York to win later in the day.
