The Philadelphia Phillies head to Wrigley Field on Monday night to open a four-game set against the Chicago Cubs. Recent meetings between these clubs have produced plenty of offense, including a series last week where both sides posted double-digit run outputs in at least one game. With Aaron Nola set to face Colin Rea in this opener, bettors are looking at a Phillies vs Cubs matchup that features two capable starters but also lineups that have shown the ability to break games open quickly.
Phillies vs Cubs Pick
- Pick: Cubs Moneyline
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Monday, April 20, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs Colin Rea
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- These teams are going in different directions of late. The Philliles are 8-13 and have dropped five straight games, while the Cubs are 12-9 and have won five in a row entering the first game of this four-game set.
- Recent meetings between these teams have featured high-scoring games, including a 13-7 Phillies win and a 10-4 Cubs response.
- Both of these teams are in fourth place in their respective divisions, but their paths to the top of their divisions looks much different. Philly is 6.5 games back of the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, while Chicago is just 1.5 games behind the first-place Cincinnati Reds.
Pitching Matchup
- Aaron Nola: 1-1 record with a 4.03 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 22.1 innings.
- Colin Rea: 2-0 record with a 3.63 ERA and a strong 0.98 WHIP over 17.1 innings of work.
- Nola has been solid but not dominant, allowing 23 hits already this season.
- Rea has limited baserunners effectively and enters in better current form.
Key Players
- Kyle Schwarber leads Philadelphia with 7 home runs and 14 RBI.
- Bryce Harper is leading the Phillies with a .273 batting average so far in 2026.
- Nico Hoerner has driven in 21 runs to lead Chicago in run production this season.
- Ian Happ has a team-high 6 home runs for the Cubs.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Phillies have lost five straight games entering Monday night.
- Chicago has won five games in a row, including a sweep of the New York Mets over the weekend.
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Cubs are 2-1 against the Phillies this season.
- The over is 3-0 in games between these teams in 2026.
- Chicago has scored 10 or more runs twice in their three meetings, with Philadelphia scoring in double-digits in their other matchup.
Phillies vs Cubs Model Projection
- Score Projection: Phillies 4 – Cubs 5
- Win Probability: Phillies 47%, Cubs 53%
This matchup leans slightly toward Chicago due to the steadier early-season performance from Colin Rea and a Cubs lineup that has generated more consistent traffic on the bases. While Aaron Nola brings the higher strikeout numbers, he has been hit harder. Add the Phillies’ recent struggles as a team to that pitching disadvantage and the Cubs should grab a sixth straight win at the expense of the struggling Phillies.
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