The Subway Series returns to Citi Field on Friday night with both clubs entering the weekend in very different spots. The Yankees arrive with one of the top records in baseball and the best ERA in the American League, while the Mets are still trying to climb back into the National League East race after a rough opening month. Even with the standings gap, this Yankees vs Mets opener has plenty of intrigue because the pitching matchup features two quality arms in Cam Schlittler and former Yankees pitcher Clay Holmes.
Our Yankees vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Yankees Moneyline -150
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Friday, May 15, 2026, 7:10 PM EDT
- Starting Pitchers: Cam Schlittler vs Clay Holmes
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: Apple TV+
Key Storylines
- The New York Yankees enter the series at 27-17 and remain near the top of the AL East standings. But New York has dropped five of its last six games and has dropped into second place in the AL East going inot the Subway Series.
- The Mets are 18-25 but have won 8 of their last 12 games after sweeping Detroit. They are still in last place in the NL East standings, but are playing better baseball of late.
- This is the start of Rivalry Weekend in MLB, and both of these New York-based teams will try to set the tone going into this game, as there are both bragging rights and important games in the standings up for grabs here.
Pitching Matchup
Cam Schlittler has been outstanding through his first nine starts. The Yankees right-hander enters Friday at 5-1 with a 1.35 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 59 strikeouts in 53.1 innings. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in seven starts and has limited hitters to a .176 batting average. His command has been elite, walking only nine batters all season.
Clay Holmes has been equally impressive in his move from closer to starter. The New York Mets right-hander owns a 1.86 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP through 48.1 innings. He has reached at least five innings in every start this season and has given the Mets stability in a rotation dealing with injuries. Holmes knows the Yankees lineup well, though facing Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger multiple times through the order presents a different challenge than closing games.
Key Players
- Aaron Judge: 16 home runs, 30 RBI, .404 OBP, .618 SLG so far this season.
- Cody Bellinger: Batting .273 with 29 RBI and a .474 slugging percentage.
- Juan Soto: Recently homered during the Mets sweep of Detroit and appears to be finding his rhythm.
- Mark Vientos: Four home runs and 11 RBI over his last 10 games.
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first meeting of the season between these New York City rivals.
- The under is 24-18-2 in Yankees games this season.
- The Mets are 24-16-3 to the under going into Friday night’s action.
Yankees vs Mets Model Projection
- Score Projection: Yankees 4 – Mets 2
- Win Probability: Yankees 62%, Mets 38%
This game projects as a lower-scoring game, because both starters have been dominant. Holmes should keep the Mets competitive early, especially with his familiarity against many Yankees hitters. Still, the Yankees lineup has significantly more power and patience, which becomes a major factor once bullpens enter the picture.
The biggest edge belongs to the Yankees offense against the Mets middle relief group. Judge and Bellinger are both swinging well, and New York continues to generate pressure with one of the better on-base percentages in baseball. The Mets have improved during their recent stretch, though their overall offensive profile still ranks near the bottom of the league in several major categories. I’ll take the Yankees to win this contest, in what should be an interesting start to the Subway Series.
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