The New York Mets and Miami Marlins will square off on Saturday afternoon at loanDepot Park. This contest is huge for the Mets, who need a win and some help to get back into the final National League Wild Card spot. Can the Mets help their cause with a win on the road? Continue reading to get my Mets vs Marlins prediction for Saturday’s huge matchup.
Our Mets vs Marlins Pick
- Pick: Mets moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 4:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Clay Holmes (NYM) vs Eury Pérez (MIA)
- Stadium: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
- Broadcast: FDSFL and SNY
Key Storylines
If the Mets win their final two games over the Marlins, they’ll greatly improve their odds of clinching the final NL Wild Card spot. The Cincinnati Reds currently hold the tiebreaker over New York, so there’s little margin for error. The Marlins, while out of the postseason picture, have already handed the Mets a 6-2 loss in Game 1 of this series. The Mets’ rally fell flat after a strong start to that game.
Mets third baseman Brett Baty exited Friday’s game with discomfort in his oblique area, raising concerns about depth in their lineup. Miami has been a competitive club at home down the stretch, so the Mets cannot dial in with a passive approach in this game.
Pitching matchup
Clay Holmes enters with an 11-8 record and a 3.66 ERA on the season. He’s one of the few arms the Mets would want to have on the mound for a game as important as this one. Eury Pérez (7-5, 4.20 ERA) has given the Marlins length in most of his starts and has shown the potential to frustrate powerful lineups with his pitch sequences.
Recent Team Streaks
The Mets have dropped three of their last five games and one has to wonder if the pressure of trying to make the playoffs is becoming a factor for them. Miami has been playing for pride and they are 3-2 over their last five games entering this matchup.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Eury Pérez (MIA) | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Miami holds a 6-5 lead in their season series against the Mets going into this contest.
- The Marlins have won three straight games against the Mets going into this contest.
Mets vs Marlins Model Projection
Score Projection: Mets 5 – Marlins 3
Win Probability: Mets 58%, Marlins 42%
Final Thoughts
This game will be a test of the Mets’ composure, given that they are not trying to chase down a playoff spot. I think that the Mets will do a good job of holding their nerve in this spot and that the Marlins will see Eury Perez struggle here. My best bet for this game is for the Mets to get the win, as they should at least keep themselves alive in the Wild Card race with a win against the lowly Marlins.
