The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs will meet at Wrigley Field on Wednesday night. After a wild 9–7 comeback win by the Mets in Tuesday’s series opener, the Mets will look for another important win for their playoff chances. The Cubs have already locked up a spot in the postseason and are searching for a win to help their playoff seeding. Here, I break down this National League matchup and make my Mets vs Cubs prediction for tonight.
Our Mets vs Cubs Pick
- Pick: Cubs moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 24, 2025, 8:05 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Jonah Tong (NYM) vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Jonah Tong is a rookie right-hander who has struggled in his limited MLB action. In 16.2 innings, he carries a 5.94 ERA and a WHIP of 1.44. His advanced metrics show a high exit velocity allowed and a barrel rate of 13.3%, suggesting batters are making solid contact when they connect with his pitches. He had his best start of the season in his last outing, though, and will try to build on that here.
Matthew Boyd is 13–8 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP for the Cubs this season. While he has allowed multiple runs in a few recent starts, his track record suggests more consistency than Tong. Boyd will be expected to outperform Tong in this game and to set the Cubs on the right track to pick up a huge win over a National League opponent tonight.
Recent team streaks
The Cubs have lost five straight games entering this one. Their late slump is a concern with playoff baseball just around the corner. The Mets have also struggled of late, but snapped a two-game losing streak with their comeback win over the Cubs on Tuesday night. If they can build on that with a win tonight, they will protect their one-game lead over the Reds and Diamondbacks in the race for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Matthew Boyd | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets hold a 3-1 lead in their season series with the Cubs.
- The first game of this three-game series went well over the total. There were 16 total runs scored by these teams on Tuesday night.
- New York is 32-44 on the road this season.
- Chicago is 46-30 at home.
Mets vs Cubs Model Projection
Score Projection: Mets 3 – Cubs 4
Win Probability: Mets 45%, Cubs 55%
Final Thoughts
The key in this game is going to be the starting pitching situation on both sides. I’m not buying into Tong for the Mets just yet, even if he looked good in his last start. Matthew Boyd is a much more consistent starter and should give the Cubs an advantage that they will not give up this time around. I’ll take the Cubs to win this game and for the Mets to feel the pressure in the NL Wild Card race as they will have to hope the Reds and Diamondbacks both falter.
