The New York Mets head into Saturday night looking to keep their recent surge going after grabbing a 3-1 extra-innings win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday. New York has won 5 of its last 6 games, while Arizona continues to search for answers during a rough stretch that has seen the club drop 12 of its last 16 contests. Here, I break down this National League contest and make my Mets vs Diamondbacks prediction in the betting markets.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Pick
- Pick: Mets Moneyline
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date & Time: Saturday, May 9, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Clay Holmes vs Merrill Kelly
- Stadium: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
- The New York Mets have won 5 of their last 6 games and are starting to turn things around after a horror show of a start to their season.
- Arizona has lost 12 of its last 16 games and has dropped 3 games in a row going into this matchup.
- The Diamondbacks have scored 2 runs or fewer in 5 of their last 9 games, including the opening game of this series on Friday.
- Mark Vientos delivered 2 RBIs in Friday’s win and continues to swing a productive bat for the Mets.
Pitching Matchup
Clay Holmes has quietly been one of the more effective starters in the National League through the opening stretch of the season. The right-hander enters with a 4-2 record and a 1.69 ERA, and his command has improved dramatically compared to previous years. Holmes has limited hard contact consistently and has helped stabilize a Mets rotation that needed dependable innings.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will go with Merrill Kelly, who has struggled through a brutal start to the season. Kelly enters at 1-3 with a 9.95 ERA and has had trouble keeping the ball in the park while also allowing plenty of traffic on the bases. The veteran right-hander remains capable of putting together a quality outing, but current form strongly favors the Mets in this pitching matchup.
Key Players
- Mark Vientos has 5 home runs and is coming off a big game Friday night.
- Bo Bichette leads the Mets with 16 RBI so far this season.
- Clay Holmes owns one of the lowest ERAs among qualified NL starters.
- Nolan Arenado homered Friday for Arizona and remains a major power threat with 6 home runs.
- Ketel Marte remains a key table-setter for the Diamondbacks offense.
- Arizona needs stronger production with runners in scoring position after another 0-for-5 effort Friday.
Betting Trends & H2H
- These teams are 2-2 against each other so far during the 2026 season.
- The under is 21-14-3 in Mets games so far this year.
- Arizona is 20-15-2 to the over heading into this matchup.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Model Projection
- Score Projection: Mets 5 – Diamondbacks 3
- Win Probability: Mets 63%, Diamondbacks 37%
The biggest edge entering Saturday belongs on the mound. Holmes has been reliable nearly every time out, while Kelly has struggled badly against both contact hitters and power bats. Arizona’s offense also has not done enough recently to offset pitching problems, and that is a dangerous combination against a Mets staff that has kept games under control. With that in mind, I’ll take the Mets to win a second straight game in this series over the Diamondbacks.
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