The Milwaukee Brewers will visit the San Diego Padres on Wednesday afternoon at Petco Park. The Brewers are jockeying for home-field advantage in the postseason while San Diego is still playing to determine whether they will be a Wild Card team or NL West champions. Before this important matchup in the National League, continue reading to get my Brewers vs Padres prediction.
Our Brewers vs Padres Pick
- Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 24, 2025, 4:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Chad Patrick (Brewers) vs Dylan Cease (Padres)
- Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: MLBN
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Milwaukee is going with Chad Patrick, who has a 3.66 ERA over 115.2 innings with a 1.28 WHIP. He has allowed 13 home runs and will need to keep the ball in the yard against the dangerous lineup of the Padres. Against right-handed hitters, Patrick has been more vulnerable, giving up 10 of those home runs. His road splits are also less forgiving, and given that San Diego’s heart of the order is right-handed, this could be an exploitable angle.
Dylan Cease is set to start today’s game for the Padres. He has an 8–12 record with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 163.0 innings. He’s struck out 207 batters, giving him an elite whiff rate, but he’s also allowed 69 walks and 21 home runs. Cease can be volatile, but in a high-leverage environment, his ability to rack up punchouts can be a game-changer.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Brewers have lost three straight games. They were shut out 7–0 by the Padres on Tuesday.
- San Diego has won four straight, including back-to-back victories over Milwaukee.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Manny Machado | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Dylan Cease | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Padres have won four of the five games they have played against the Brewers this season.
- San Diego has won three straight games between these teams.
- This is the final regular-season matchup between these teams in 2025. They could meet again in the playoffs, however.
Brewers vs Padres Model Projection
Score Projection: Brewers 4 – Padres 5
Win Probability: Brewers 45%, Padres 55%
Final Thoughts
We should see a close game between these teams on Wednesday afternoon. Milwaukee might have the better team overall this season. But the Padres are at home and have a strikeout artist on the mound in Cease. I expect Cease to neutralize the bats of the Brew Crew in this game and for the Padres to come away with an important win for their NL West title hopes at Petco Park.
