The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies will conclude their three-game series on Thursday at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies locked up a bye past the Wild Card round of the postseason with their blowout win over the Marlins on Wednesday. They will look to build on that momentum in this contest. Before the fun begins from Philly, continue reading to get my Marlins vs Phillies prediction for Thursday night.
Our Marlins vs Phillies Pick
- Pick: Over 9
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 25, 2025, 6:05 PM EDT
- Starting Pitchers: Janson Junk (MIA) vs Walker Buehler (PHI)
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: NBC Sports Philadelphia, FanDuel Sports Network Florida
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Janson Junk (6-3, 4.27 ERA) takes the mound for the Marlins tonight. While his 4.27 ERA is respectable, he has allowed at least three earned runs in nine of his past 10 starts. His strikeout rate is relatively low, and he faces a Phillies lineup that ranks second in scoring at home with 5.5 runs per game. That could be troublesome for Miami in this matchup.
Walker Buehler (9-7, 5.13 ERA) starts for the Phillies tonight. Despite a higher ERA, Buehler has been more effective at home, with a 3.23 FIP at home compared to 6.1 FIP on the road. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is better at home, and he faces a Marlins offense that has struggled against right-handed pitching this season.
Recent Team Streaks
- Miami Marlins: The Marlins have won 11 of their last 13 games, including a dramatic extra-innings win on Tuesday. They lost 11-1 on Wednesday and will look to bounce back against the Phillies tonight.
- Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies have secured a first-round bye in the playoffs after winning at home on Wednesday night. But they are looking to regain momentum after a recent slump. Their 11-1 victory on Wednesday ended a three-game losing streak for the playoff-bound Phillies.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Walker Buehler | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Janson Junk | Under 15.5 Outs Recorded |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Phillies lead the regular-season series 8-4 over the Marlins this season.
- This is the final regular-season meeting between these two teams this year.
- The first two games of this series have both gone over their totals with over 10 total runs scored in each game.
Marlins vs Phillies Model Projection
- Score Projection: Marlins 5 – Phillies 6
- Win Probability: Marlins 35%, Phillies 65%
Final Thoughts
I think that we are going to see plenty of offensive fireworks in this contest from Citizens Bank Park on Thursday night. Both teams are facing starting pitchers that have not been consistently shutting down their opponents. My best bet for this game is for it to go over the total of nine runs, as we should see a third straight game where these teams combine to hit double-digits on the scoreboard.
