The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds will meet on Wednesday night in Milwaukee. The Brew Crew put another dent in Cincinnati’s summer on Tuesday, getting a 7-2 win that pushed their division lead further out of reach and dropped the Reds to 39-45 on the season. Now the two NL Central rivals will play game three of their four-game set at American Family Field on Wednesday, July 1, with left-hander Shane Drohan taking the ball for a Milwaukee club that owns the second-best record in baseball and Andrew Abbott looking to slow down a Brewers offense that has feasted on Cincinnati pitching all week.
Our Reds vs Brewers Prediction
- Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Reds vs Brewers Model Projection
- Score Projection: Milwaukee Brewers 5, Cincinnati Reds 2
- Win Probability: Brewers 63%, Reds 37%
Milwaukee enters at 52-31, trailing only the Dodgers for the best record in the sport, while Cincinnati sits in fifth place in the NL Central at 39-45 and has now dropped five straight meetings with its division rival. The Brewers’ pitching staff carries a team ERA of 3.38 with an xFIP of 3.72, a gap between two clubs that shows up clearly when Milwaukee starters take the mound against this Reds lineup, which is averaging just over four runs a game and ranks toward the bottom of the league in OPS.
Drohan has quietly become a trustworthy piece of Milwaukee’s rotation since debuting in relief in April. He shut Cincinnati out over 4 1/3 innings in his last start against these same Reds on June 24, and he gets a favorable spot again with a Brewers lineup that has scored early and often this series. Abbott has been solid enough for Cincinnati this year, but his FIP sits over a run higher than his ERA, a sign that regression could be coming, and four different Brewers have gone deep off him in his career. With Milwaukee’s bullpen depth, home-field advantage, and a Reds offense that has struggled to string together rallies with runners in scoring position, the Brewers look like the play to cover the run line.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers
- Date & Time: Wednesday, July 1, 2026, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Andrew Abbott (CIN, LHP, 5-4, 3.90 ERA) vs Shane Drohan (MIL, LHP, 3-2, 3.12 ERA)
- Stadium: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
- Broadcast: ESPN / ESPN App
Reds vs Brewers Same Game Parlay
- Milwaukee Brewers moneyline (-168)
- Under 8.5 total runs (-105)
- Jackson Chourio to record a hit (-333)
Total Parlay Odds: +282
This three-leg parlay leans into the pitching side of Wednesday’s game. Drohan has been stingy against this Reds lineup already this season, and Milwaukee’s bullpen has been one of the better units in the league at protecting leads, supporting both the moneyline and the under. Chourio has been the hottest hitter on either roster over the past 10 games, going 11-for-43 with 2 home runs, and he gets a lefty in Abbott he has already gone deep against twice in his career.
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop
Pick: Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (+386, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chourio has 12 home runs on the season and has gone deep 2 times in his last 10 games while slashing well above his season average during that stretch. Facing a Reds pitching staff that ranks near the bottom of the league in ERA and has allowed the long ball at an above-average clip, Chourio’s blend of recent form and raw power makes this price appealing relative to the field of Milwaukee and Cincinnati hitters available on the board.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Head-to-head this season: Brewers have won five straight meetings with the Reds, going 5-0 against Cincinnati on the year.
- Milwaukee is 28-17 at home this season, Cincinnati is 20-23 on the road.
- Against the run line, the Brewers are 47-36 this season. The Reds are 45-39.
- Over/under trends: the Reds have gone over the total in roughly 49 of 84 games with a set number this season, while the Brewers have gone over in roughly 37 of 83 games with a set number.
Stat Comparison
| Category | Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | .227 | .255 |
| OPS | .698 | .735 |
| wOBA | .309 | .325 |
| wRC+ | 89 | 106 |
| Team ERA | 4.63 | 3.38 |
| xFIP | 4.77 | 3.72 |
The Brewers hold the edge in all of the major metrics listed above and they should continue their run of dominance against the Reds in this matchup. I’ll gladly lay the runline with the Brew Crew on their home turf on Wednesday night.
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