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Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction - 6/23/2025

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Who Wins Rubber Match In St. Louis?

Updated May 31, 2026 • 3 min read

The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals close out their weekend series on Sunday night at Busch Stadium. Chicago enters the contest at 32-27 after a convincing 6-1 victory on Saturday, while St. Louis sits at 30-26 and looks to avoid dropping consecutive games on its home field. Chicago received a major boost Saturday from Pete Crow-Armstrong, who broke out of a prolonged slump with a four-hit performance that included a home run and two RBIs. They will hope for another spark from PCA in this Cubs vs Cardinals series finale on Sunday Night Baseball.

Our Cubs vs Cardinals Pick

  • Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline -116
  • Confidence: 3.5 out of 5

Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals
  • Date & Time: Sunday, May 31, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
  • Starting Pitchers: Jordan Wicks for Chicago, Matthew Liberatore for St. Louis
  • Stadium: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
  • Broadcast: NBC and Peacock

Key Storylines

  • Chicago enters after a 6-1 win Saturday and will hope that victory can move them closer to breaking out of their recent run of poor form.
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong snapped a slump with a four-hit performance and appears to be finding his swing.
  • St. Louis is attempting to rebound after committing three errors in Saturday’s defeat.
  • The NL Central standings remain tightly packed, increasing the value of every divisional game.
  • Both clubs rank among the stronger offensive teams in the league, averaging more than 4.5 runs per game.

Pitching Matchup

  • Jordan Wicks, Cubs: 0-1 record, 16.62 ERA
  • Matthew Liberatore, Cardinals: 2-3 record, 4.76 ERA
  • Wicks has made only a limited number of appearances this season, making his inflated ERA somewhat misleading due to a small sample size.
  • Liberatore has been more stable but has allowed enough traffic on the bases to create scoring opportunities for opposing offenses.

Key Players

  • Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs: Coming off a 4-for-5 performance with a home run and two RBIs.
  • Ian Happ, Cubs: Continues to provide power production and entered the weekend hitting with a slugging percentage near .480.
  • Jordan Walker, Cardinals: Batting .290 with a .557 slugging percentage.
  • Alec Burleson, Cardinals: Hitting .280 and driving in runs consistently.

Betting Trends & H2H

  • The season series between these teams is tied 1-1.
  • The over/under is 1-1 in games between the Cubs and Cardinals this year.
  • Chicago is 14-16 on the road for the season.
  • St. Louis enters this matchup at 14-14 at home in 2026.

Cubs vs Cardinals Model Projection

  • Score Projection: Chicago Cubs 5 – St. Louis Cardinals 4
  • Win Probability: Chicago Cubs 56%, St. Louis Cardinals 44%

The Cubs have been the more effective run-prevention team throughout the season, and their offense appears to be getting healthier and more productive after Crow-Armstrong’s breakout performance Saturday. They also enter the game with greater depth throughout the lineup and a bullpen that has generally delivered steadier results. Expect a competitive game that stays close into the late innings, but for Chicago to take it when all is said and done.

More Baseball Betting Resources

  • All Baseball Betting Picks
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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

Affiliate Disclosure ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
Tags: Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals
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