Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 9/26/2025

The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres will face off in a huge NL West matchup on Friday night. Friday’s showdown at Petco Park involves two teams still in the National League Wild Card race. The Padres have clinched a playoff spot and are playing for Wild Card seeding. The Diamondbacks are still alive in the race for the final Wild Card spot, but need wins and plenty of help to earn that position. Here, I break down this huge division matchup and give you my Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction for tonight’s game.

Our Diamondbacks vs Padres Pick

• Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
• Date & Time: Friday, September 26, 2025, 9:40 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Zac Gallen (ARI) vs Yu Darvish (SD)
• Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Broadcast: SDPA, ARID

Key Storylines

Arizona is still in the playoff hunt and has motivation to win late in September. The Diamondbacks are two games back of the New York Mets for the final Wild Card spot in the NL. They will need to sweep the Padres to have a realistic shot at getting into the postseason. The Padres have locked up a Wild Card spot and will spend this weekend trying to move ahead of the Chicago Cubs for the top Wild Card position.

Pitching matchup

Zac Gallen enters this game at 13–14 with a 4.70 ERA and 172 strikeouts. He has been more effective in August and September than earlier in the season and owns favorable numbers against the Padres in his career. Against San Diego, Gallen has gone 5–3 with a 3.12 ERA.

Gallen will go up against Yu Darvish. Darvish is 4–5 with a 5.51 ERA and 64 strikeouts this year. He has a 9–5 record and a 3.78 career ERA against Arizona. But his recent struggles suggest that he could have a tougher time against Arizona this time around.

Recent team streaks

• The Diamondbacks have lost two games in a row going into this series. They dropped two out of three games to the LA Dodgers in their last series and will try to bounce back from that here against another tough opponent.
• The Padres had an extended winning streak snapped in the final game of their last series against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• These teams are 5-5 against each other so far this season.
• The Diamondbacks are 37-41 on the road for the season.
• San Diego is 49-29 at home going into their final home series of the regular season.

Diamondbacks vs Padres Model Projection

Score Projection: Arizona 6 – San Diego 5

Win Probability: Arizona 54%, San Diego 46%

Final Thoughts

This game is going to be a close one. But I think that the Diamondbacks will come away with the win when all is said and done. Gallen gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge over Darvish on the mound here. That should help Arizona get a much-needed win that will keep their faint playoff hopes alive for at least one more night.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.