The UTSA Roadrunners will go up against the North Texas Mean Green on Saturday afternoon. North Texas is an impressive 5-1 on the season so far and they will try to avoid being upset by the 3-3 Roadrunners in this game. Here, I break down this American Athletic Conference matchup and give you my UTSA vs North Texas prediction.
Our UTSA vs North Texas Pick
- Pick: Over 64.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UTSA Roadrunners vs North Texas Mean Green
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 18, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: DATCU Stadium, Denton, TX
- Broadcast: ESPN+
UTSA vs North Texas Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | North Texas -3.5 |
| Moneyline | North Texas -175, UTSA +150 |
| Total | Over/Under 64.5 |
Key Storylines
Quarterback Play
UTSA quarterback Owen McCown has shown promise this season, with 1,226 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He will need to be at his best if UTSA’s offense is going to keep up with the explosive offense of North Texas.
North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker has been more efficient, amassing 1,583 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. The Mean Green rank sixth in the country in points per game this year and the play of Mestemaker has been a big reason for their success on that side of the ball.
Questions On Defense
North Texas took its first loss of the season in their last game. The Mean Green gave up 63 points to South Florida in that contest and UNT will try to tighten things up on defense to avoid a second straight loss here. North Texas has been impressive on offense all season, but they have struggled in games like the USF game and a contest where they allowed 38 points to Army’s option offense.
UTSA hasn’t been infallible on defense either. They allowed over 40 points in a game against Texas State earlier in the season. This will be one of the biggest tests of the season for the Roadrunners on defense.
Betting Trends & H2H
- North Texas is 4-2 against the spread for the season.
- UTSA is 3-3 against the spread entering this weekend’s action.
- Both of these teams are 4-2 to the over in the over/under market this season.
- UTSA is 8-5 all-time against North Texas.
UTSA vs North Texas Model Projection
- Score Projection: North Texas 38 – UTSA 29
- Win Probability: North Texas 59%, UTSA 41%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this game is for the over to cash. This is one of the higher totals on the board this weekend in college football. But that total is justified, as both of these teams are very good at airing it out on offense. North Texas might not give up over 60 points again this week but this contest should still go over the total when all is said and done.
