The UL Monroe Warhawks and Northwestern Wildcats will do battle in college football on Saturday. The Wildcats are 2-2 on the season and are favored to improve to 3-2 with a win at home. But the fact that Northwestern is only an 11.5-point favorite against this UL Monroe program speaks to the problems with the Northwestern program right now. Here, I analyze this non-conference matchup and give you my UL Monroe vs Northwestern prediction for Saturday.
Our UL Monroe vs Northwestern Pick
- Pick: UL Monroe +11.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UL Monroe Warhawks vs Northwestern Wildcats
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, at 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue: Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, Evanston, IL
- Broadcast: Big Ten Network
Key Storylines
A big storyline going into this game is the fact that UL Monroe is off to such a good start. They are 3-1 on the season and their only loss came against the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Warhawks have a shot at pulling off an upset in this game as well, though they will have to overcome the physicality of Northwestern if they are going to accomplish that.
Quarterback Play
- UL Monroe: Quarterback Aidan Armenta has thrown for 444 yards, with five touchdowns and three interceptions. He is leading a Warhawks offense that isn’t explosive, but does enough to join forces with their defense to win games.
- Northwestern: Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone has accumulated 656 passing yards, with four touchdowns and six interceptions. He has been inefficient for the Wildcats and that has a lot to do with Northwestern not being all that heavy a favorite against an opponent from the Sun Belt Conference.
Defensive Matchup
- UL Monroe: The Warhawks’ defense has allowed 365.3 yards per game, ranking 76th in the FBS. They have a strong run defense, giving up only 85.8 yards per game.
- Northwestern: The Wildcats’ defense has been bad at generating turnovers. Northwestern ranks 129th in turnover margin at -6, which could be a critical factor in this game.
Betting Trends & H2H
- UL Monroe: The Warhawks have gone 2-2 against the spread this season. They are also 2-2 on over/unders for the year.
- Northwestern: Northwestern is also 2-2 ATS in the 2025 season. They have seen three of their first four games stay under their totals.
- Head-to-Head: This is the first meeting between these two teams. There are no historical trends to rely on here.
UL Monroe vs Northwestern Model Projection
Score Projection: Northwestern 31 – UL Monroe 24
Win Probability: Northwestern 82.2%, UL Monroe 17.8%
Final Thoughts
I think that we will see Northwestern come away with the win at home in this contest against UL Monroe. But I don’t think that it is going to be as easy as many expect. UL Monroe is solid on defense and has looked good against everyone but Alabama in 2025. I will take the points with the Warhawks, as their defense should do just enough to keep this game within single-digits on the road.
