The UCF Knights will face the Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday afternoon at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan. UCF enters the game undefeated at 3-0, while Kansas State has struggled with a 1-3 record. Both of these teams are looking for their first win in Big 12 play for this season. Here, you will find my breakdown of this matchup, and my UCF vs Kansas State prediction is below.
Our UCF vs Kansas State Pick
- Pick: UCF +6.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UCF Knights vs Kansas State Wildcats
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
- Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
UCF vs Kansas State Odds
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas State -6.5 |
| Moneyline | UCF +190 / Kansas State -225 |
| Total | 49.5 |
Key Storylines
- UCF’s Offensive Efficiency: The Knights have averaged 39.7 points per game, showcasing a balanced attack with both passing and rushing threats. They put up 34 points last week in a win over North Carolina. They will look to light up the scoreboard against a power conference opponent for the second week in a row here.
- Kansas State’s Offensive Struggles: The Wildcats are averaging 24.3 points per game, with a particularly concerning rushing offense that ranks 121st nationally. Kansas State is 0-3 against FBS opponents this season, with their lone win of the year coming against North Dakota out of the FCS.
- Coaching Transition at UCF: The recent passing of offensive line coach Shawn Clark is an unfortunate factor in this game. While we wish nothing but the best for his family and loved ones, UCF will have to move past that situation and play a football game here. That might be a tough task.
Quarterback Play
- UCF: Quarterback Tayven Jackson has been efficient, but unspectacular through the air. He has three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He could be asked to do more in this game than he’s had to in non-conference action.
- Kansas State: Quarterback Avery Johnson has faced challenges, completing 44.8% of his passes for 88 yards in a loss to Arizona. He has been a disappointment so far this year and will have to prove that he belongs in another conference game here.
Betting Trends
- UCF is 1-1 against the spread to start the year.
- Kansas State is 0-4 against the spread through their first three games.
- UCF has had two of its first three games go under their totals.
- K-State has seen three of its first four games stay under their totals.
UCF vs Kansas State Model Projection
- Score Projection: UCF 27 – Kansas State 24
- Win Probability: UCF 55%, Kansas State 45%
Final Thoughts
I understand that the expectation for this game is for Kansas State to play better at home than they have played for most of this season. But I just don’t see it with this Kansas State offense right now. UCF is playing better and more cohesive football right now and that should continue as the Knights could win this game outright as an underdog on the road.
