The Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1, 4-1 Big 12) will travel to Manhattan to face the Kansas State Wildcats (4-4, 3-2 Big 12) in a critical conference matchup on Saturday. Texas Tech arrives riding high after a dominant 42-0 win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys, while Kansas State has regained some momentum with two wins in a row. Here, I take a closer look at this matchup in the Big 12 and give you my Texas Tech vs Kansas State prediction.
Our Texas Tech vs Kansas State Pick
- Pick: Kansas State +7.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Kansas State Wildcats
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Texas Tech’s defense: Texas Tech allowed zero points in its last outing versus Oklahoma State and enters the contest with one of the nation’s top defenses. They are especially stout against the run. They will attempt to set the tone on that side of the ball when facing a Kansas State offense trying to build consistency.
Kansas State’s head-to-head dominance: The Wildcats have won eight straight games against the Red Raiders. But these programs have looked a lot different this year than they have in the recent past, as Texas Tech has taken a leap this year and K-State has struggled relative to their usual high standard.
Quarterback dynamics and momentum: Texas Tech’s senior quarterback Behren Morton is back from injury. He has been excellent when healthy and the Red Raiders should benefit from his presence here. Kansas State signal-caller Avery Johnson is playing much better in recent weeks after a slow start to the year. He could get his team above the .500 mark for the first time this year with a win in this contest.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Kansas State is 4-4 against the spread going into this game.
- Texas Tech is 7-1 against the spread so far this season.
- Texas Tech is 3-5 on over/unders to this point in the year.
- Kansas State has gone over the total in five of their first eight games this season.
Texas Tech vs Kansas State Model Projection
Score Projection: Texas Tech 31 – Kansas State 28
Win Probability: Texas Tech 70% / Kansas State 30%
Final Thoughts
I would expect Texas Tech to get the win on the road in this game. But I am going to take the points with Kansas State here. The Wildcats could very well win this game outright on their home turf. With Avery Johnson playing a lot better of late, K-State should be able to move the ball efficiently and keep this game within a touchdown when all is said and done in the Little Apple.
