TCU and Kansas State will play in the Big 12 on Saturday afternoon. The Horned Frogs are off to a 4-1 start, but they are only a slight favorite on the road against a 2-4 K-State team. I have crunched the numbers ahead of this game and you can find my TCU vs Kansas State prediction before this week’s game begins.
Our TCU vs Kansas State Pick
- Pick: TCU -2.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas State Wildcats
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
- Broadcast: FOX
TCU vs Kansas State Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | TCU -2.5 |
| Moneyline | TCU -130, Kansas State +110 |
| Total | 55.5 |
Key Storylines
Quarterback Play
TCU quarterback Josh Hoover has been a steady presence for the Horned Frogs. He has generated just over 1,500 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. Hoover has found Eric McAlister for five of those 15 touchdowns in what has become a special connection for TCU.
Kansas State’s Avery Johnson has shown flashes of brilliance but has struggled with consistency. He has combined for 13 total touchdowns through the air and on the ground. TCU will try to turn him into a pure passer by containing him within the pocket.
Injuries and Depth
TCU enters the game with several key injuries. Wide receiver Eric McAlister and running back Kevorian Barnes have returned to action, providing a huge boost to their offense. However, the Horned Frogs will be without left tackle Ryan Hughes, who suffered a leg injury that could end his season. Cornerbacks Elijah Jackson and Avery Helm are also sidelined.
Kansas State’s standout running back Dylan Edwards is listed as questionable, and his absence would significantly affect the Wildcats’ ground game. Defensive lineman Ansel Din-Mbuh is expected to return for Kansas State, bolstering their defensive front.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Kansas State is 10-8 all-time against TCU. The Wildcats have won five of the last six meetings between these programs.
- TCU is 3-1-1 against the spread this season.
- K-State enters this game with a 2-4 record against the spread.
- Three of TCU’s first five games of the season have gone under their totals.
- Kansas State is 3-3 on over/unders heading into Week 7 of the season.
TCU vs Kansas State Model Projection
Score Projection: TCU 31 – Kansas State 23
Win Probability: TCU 53.8%, Kansas State 46.2%
Final Thoughts
I am very high on the passing attack of TCU coming into this week. Hoover has done a great job of adjusting to injury concerns surrounding McAlister and making up for the loss of their best receiver from a season ago. I think that TCU will keep things rolling in this contest and cover the spread as a road favorite on their way to 5-1.
