The South Florida Bulls (4-1) will travel to Denton to face the undefeated North Texas Mean Green (5-0) on Friday night. North Texas enters with an undefeated record, while USF continues to build respect nationally following upset wins earlier in the season. Both teams are 1-0 in American Athletic Conference play, but only one will stay unbeaten in the AAC after this game. Before kickoff, continue reading to get my South Florida vs North Texas prediction.
Our South Florida vs North Texas Pick
- Pick: North Texas Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: South Florida Bulls vs North Texas Mean Green
- Date & Time: Friday, October 10, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: DATCU Stadium, Denton, TX
- Broadcast: ESPN2
South Florida vs North Texas Odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida –1.5 |
| Moneyline | USF –120 / UNT +100 |
| Total | 68.5 |
Key Storylines
Can North Texas stay undefeated? UNT is off to its first 5-0 start since 1959 and the school is pulling out all the stops for this game. Classes will be dismissed at noon on game day, and faculty are being offered free tickets to help pack the stadium. The atmosphere could be a difference maker in this game, especially if this ends up being a tight game.
Offensive firepower: USF averages 36.2 points per game while North Texas is pushing roughly 44.8 points per game. This is one of the more exciting offensive matchups in the country this week. The pressure in this game is squarely on the two defenses and the defense that can find a stop or two could win this game for their team.
Quarterback Play
South Florida: Byrum Brown has thrown for 1,194 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions on the season. He leads USF also in rushing with 282 yards and three rushing scores. His dual-threat capability is incredibly valuable to the offensive success of the Bulls.
North Texas: Drew Mestemaker has been sharp, tossing 11 touchdowns with zero interceptions so far, completing 67.9% of his passes. He is leading one of the most underrated passing attacks in college football right now.
Betting Trends & H2H
- North Texas is 4-1 against the spread going into this week.
- South Florida is 3-1-1 against the spread through five games.
- Both teams have had three of their first five games go over their totals for the year.
- USF is 2-0 all-time against North Texas. These teams last met in 2002.
South Florida vs North Texas Model Projection
Score Projection: South Florida 31 – North Texas 34
Win Probability: USF 46%, UNT 54%
Final Thoughts
This will likely be a tightly contested battle. USF has had a great start to their season, but I have been very impressed with what I’ve seen from North Texas as well. The Mean Green have an elite passing attack and should continue to put up points in bunches in this game. I’ll go with North Texas to win as a slight home underdog, thanks in large part to them playing at home and moving the ball so efficiently through the air.
