South Florida enters this weekend’s road test at Navy with real momentum behind a high-octane offense. Navy relies on a disciplined ground attack and the ability to be more physical than their opponents. Both sides hold records of 7-2 and are the top two teams in the American Athletic Conference standings going into this weekend. Before kickoff from Annapolis, continue reading to get my South Florida vs Navy prediction for this huge game in college football.
Our South Florida vs Navy Pick
- Pick: South Florida -9.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: South Florida Bulls vs Navy Midshipmen
- Date and Time: Saturday, November 15, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Navy–Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
The biggest storyline going into this game is just how high the stakes are between these teams. The Midshipmen are first in the AAC standings at 5-1, with South Florida right behind them at 4-1. The winner of this game will take a huge step toward qualifying for the AAC title game.
South Florida is also playing with the knowledge that they control their own destiny in the race for the College Football Playoff. The Bulls were made the Group of Five representative in the latest College Football Playoff rankings this past Tuesday. If they win out, it would be very hard for any school to take that spot away from the Bulls before the playoff begins.
Quarterback Play
South Florida continues to stack yards and points, averaging 42 points per game and approaching the 500 yards per game threshold. Byrum Brown has delivered 2,203 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 6 interceptions. He also has 705 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns through nine games. He faces another dual-threat quarterback in Navy’s Blake Horvath.
Horvath comes into this game with just 107 pass attempts in 9 games. But he has 11 passing touchdowns and 13 rushing touchdowns on the season. He has been a huge reason for the success of the Midshipmen going into this massive game in the AAC.
Betting Trends and H2H
- USF is 6-2-1 against the spread going into this game.
- Navy has struggled against the spread with only two covers in nine games.
- USF has gone over the total in six of the team’s nine outings this season.
- The Midshipmen have gone over the total seven times in nine games.
- Navy leads the all-time series 3-2, including a win in their most recent meeting in 2024.
South Florida vs Navy Model Projection
Score Projection: South Florida 38 – Navy 24
Win Probability: South Florida 70%, Navy 30%
Final Thoughts
This should be a game where both offenses are able to do some damage against the defense of the opposition. But I’m going to take the USF Bulls to win and cover the spread on the road here. The Midshipmen have struggled to contain the two most gifted offenses that they’ve faced so far this season and I am expecting that to be the case again here against Byrum Brown and the Bulls.
