The San Jose State Spartans and Utah State Aggies will meet in Mountain West Conference play on Friday night. Both of these teams are 1-1 in conference play going into this game and this game is huge for both sides with that in mind. Here, I break down this MWC matchup from all angles and you can find my San Jose State vs Utah State prediction below.
Our San Jose State vs Utah State Pick
- Pick: San Jose State +3.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Jose State vs Utah State
- Date & Time: Friday, October 17, 2025, 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
San Jose State vs Utah State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Utah State –3.5 | Utah State –155 / San Jose State +135 | 63.5 |
Key Storylines
One of the biggest storylines heading into this game is whether Utah State can rebound after a demoralizing loss to Hawaii. The Aggies allowed 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and struggled significantly with their third down defense. Their defense faces another stiff test against San Jose State’s high-volume passing game.
San Jose State comes in having lost a tight game at Wyoming in their last game. Their offense is rock-solid through the air, but their run game is a non-entity and their defense has struggled regularly. The Spartans are winless on the road this season and they will try to change that this week.
Utah State is 3-3 on the season and they have been two entirely different teams depending on where they are playing. The Aggies are 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road this season. They will attempt to stay unbeaten at home in this contest.
Quarterback Play
Utah State will rely on Bryson Barnes at quarterback. He has been efficient this season with 1,318 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and two interceptions. In the Hawaii loss, he produced just 175 yards, one touchdown, and one pick while the Aggies’ offense stalled in the fourth quarter. The question is whether he can rebound under pressure and avoid turnovers now that the Aggies are back at home.
San Jose State’s Walker Eget is a prolific passer. He has thrown for over 1,800 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions this year. His connection with Danny Scudero has been incredible. Scudero enters this game with 50 catches, 845 yards, and eight touchdowns. Scudero recently set a school record with four touchdown catches in a game and he will be a key weapon in this contest as well.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Utah State is 5–1 against the spread this season.
- San Jose State is 3–3 against the spread going into this game.
- Both of these teams have gone over the total in four of their first six games.
- San Jose State is 21-20-1 all-time against Utah State.
San Jose State vs Utah State Model Projection
Score Projection: Utah State 34 – San Jose State 31
Win Probability: Utah State 61%, San Jose State 39%
Final Thoughts
I think that we are going to see a close game here. The outcome could go in either direction, but I think that the passing game of San Jose State will keep them within a field goal no matter who gets the victory. I’ll take the points with the Spartans in what should be an interesting matchup in the Mountain West.
