Penn State and Iowa will play in the Big Ten on Saturday night. The Nittany Lions have made headlines by firing head coach James Franklin after a three-game losing streak. They will try to turn things around starting this week in a difficult place to play. Here, you will find my breakdown of this game, including my Penn State vs Iowa prediction.
Our Penn State vs Iowa Pick
- Pick: Under 40.5
- Confidence: 5/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions vs Iowa Hawkeyes
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 18, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
- Broadcast: Peacock
Key Storylines
- Penn State enters after losing three straight Big Ten games and having just fired head coach James Franklin. Interim Terry Smith now leads a team that is 3-3 after being ranked in the top five in the country not too long ago.
- Starting quarterback Drew Allar is out for the season, leaving redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer to make his first career start in a hostile environment.
- Iowa has home-field advantage, with a defense built to pressure young and inexperienced passers. The Hawkeyes will feel right at home in what should be a low-scoring game against a team adjusting to a ton of changes.
Quarterback Play
Penn State’s new quarterback, Ethan Grunkemeyer, is untested at this level. His performance under duress will be a key factor, especially against Iowa’s defense, which is good at collapsing pockets and forcing mistakes. The Nittany Lions will need a strong rushing attack from Kaytron Allen to alleviate pressure on Allar’s replacement.
Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski has thrown for over 700 yards this season. He is dealing with a knee issue but is expected to play without any limitations. His ability to make plays off-script will matter against a solid Penn State defense. The key for Gronowski in this game will be avoiding turnovers that could turn into short fields for Penn State’s new-look offense.
Betting Trends
- Penn State is 0-6 against the spread this season. They are the only team in the country that has failed to cover in all six of their games.
- Iowa is 4-1-1 against the spread going into this week.
- Four of Iowa’s six games this season have gone under their totals.
- Penn State games have gone over the total four times in six games.
Penn State vs Iowa Model Projection
Score Projection: Iowa 21 – Penn State 14
Win Probability: Iowa 57%, Penn State 43%
Final Thoughts
Iowa should be able to win this game at home against a Penn State team that is a complete disaster at this point in time. But my top pick for this game is the under. Iowa will be content to play field position in this game and force Penn State’s replacement at quarterback to beat them by sustaining long drives. He will not be able to and the under should cash in this matchup in the Big Ten.
