The Michigan Wolverines and USC Trojans will face off in the Big Ten on Saturday night. Both teams are 4-1 on the season and the winner of this game would take a huge step toward Big Ten title game contention. Here, I take a closer look at this game from Los Angeles and will bring you my Michigan vs USC prediction below.
Our Michigan vs USC Pick
- Pick: USC -2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Michigan Wolverines vs USC Trojans
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: NBC
Michigan vs USC Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | -2.5 | -140 | 56.5 |
| Michigan | +2.5 | +120 | 56.5 |
Key Storylines
- USC’s High-Powered Offense: Quarterback Jayden Maiava leads the nation in Total QBR at 93.5, amassing 1,587 passing yards and 11 touchdowns. Wide receiver Makai Lemon has 35 receptions for 589 yards and five touchdowns, making him a primary target for Maiava in the passing game. If USC can protect Maiava against Michigan’s defense, they could get a big win at home here.
- Michigan’s Defensive Resilience: The Wolverines have one of the nation’s premier defenses, ranking 19th in touchdowns allowed and 16th in opponent points per game. But they haven’t played a team with an offense as explosive as that of USC this season.
- Travel and Venue: Midwest teams have historically struggled when traveling across time zones, with a collective 4-12 record in such situations since last season. Additionally, USC is well-rested after a bye week, while Michigan is playing its first-ever Big Ten game in Los Angeles.
Quarterback Play
Michigan: Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has 1,003 passing yards for the season with three touchdowns this season. He has not lived up to his five-star expectations, but leading Michigan to a win over USC would help him move toward accomplishing that.
USC: Jayden Maiava has been excellent this season for the Trojans. He has accounted for 15 total touchdowns and will try to pass his biggest test of the season so far against the defense of the Wolverines.
Betting Trends & H2H
- USC: The Trojans have gone 2-3 against the spread this season.
- Michigan: The Wolverines are also 2-3 against the spread this year.
- Over/Under: USC is 4-1 to the over so far this season. Michigan is 3-2 to the over.
- Head-to-Head: This is the second meeting between Michigan and USC since the Trojans joined the Big Ten. Michigan won the first one in Ann Arbor last season. USC leads the all-time series 6-5.
Michigan vs USC Model Projection
- Score Projection: Michigan 24 – USC 28
- Win Probability: Michigan 42%, USC 58%
Final Thoughts
This should be a close game and it will be decided by whether USC’s offense can execute against Michigan’s defense. I think that USC will do enough to win this game at home, thanks in large part to Maiava and the passing game. This will be a game that gets USC into the top 25 and I recommend laying the points with the Trojans tonight.
