The Jacksonville State Gamecocks (4‑3, 3‑0 CUSA) will go up against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1‑6, 0‑3 CUSA) in Murfreesboro on Wednesday night. Jacksonville State arrives with an unbeaten record in Conference USA play and an elite rushing attack. Middle Tennessee is still searching for momentum after a handful of tight losses. Before kickoff from Murfreesboro, continue reading to get my Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee prediction.
Our Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Pick
- Pick: Jacksonville State −4.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
- Date & Time: Wednesday, October 29, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
Jacksonville State has won its first three conference games and carries the momentum into this mid‑week clash. Middle Tennessee has lost six of seven and is still seeking its first CUSA win of the season. With that said, Jax State is only a slight favorite, suggesting that this game could be closer than the records of these teams would lead you to believe.
The running attack of Jacksonville State is also a huge storyline going into this game. They rank near the top nationally in rushing yards per game at 276 yards per game, while they are scoring 30.7 points per game. Middle Tennessee’s defense against the run is middling. They allow 142.9 rushing yards per game and surrender 29.7 points per game. Jax State should be able to move the ball effectively here and the question will be whether that is enough for them to stay perfect in CUSA.
Quarterback Play
The Jacksonville State quarterback is set to be Caden Creel. He is not the centerpiece of the offense, but he has done a decent enough job of keeping the chains moving and switching things up from the rushing attack. Creel is expected to play after leading the Gamecocks’ last game against Delaware due to injury.
Middle Tennessee quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has thrown for 1,673 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions so far. The running game and scoring output for MTSU has not been good enough to support Vattiato this season but Vattiato will try to make up for that in this contest.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Both teams are 3-4 against the spread so far this season.
- Middle Tennessee is also 3-4 on over/unders so far this season.
- Jacksonville State has gone over the total in five of their first seven games.
- Middle Tennessee is 14-3-2 all-time against Jax State.
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Model Projection
- Jacksonville State Score Projection: 31
- Middle Tennessee Score Projection: 21
- Win Probability: Jacksonville State 70%, Middle Tennessee 30%
Final Thoughts
I am going to take the Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win and cover the spread on the road against Middle Tennessee. The running game of the Gamecocks should allow them to overcome any quarterback questions they have due to Creel being banged up. I expect Middle Tennessee to wear down defensively late in this game and for Jax State to remain undefeated in Conference USA play with a win here.
