The undefeated Indiana Hoosiers (9-0) will visit the struggling Penn State Nittany Lions (3-5) on Saturday afternoon. Indiana enters this week ranked second in the nation and rolling through Big Ten competition. They will aim to avoid being tripped up by a Penn State team whose season has become an absolute nightmare in recent weeks. Here, I break down this Big Ten battle and give you my Indiana vs Penn State prediction from Happy Valley.
Our Indiana vs Penn State Pick
- Pick: Indiana Hoosiers -14.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Indiana Hoosiers vs Penn State Nittany Lions
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Beaver Stadium, State College, Pennsylvania
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
The Hoosiers are 9-0 and they have beaten their last two opponents by a combined score of 111-16. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 2,124 yards with 25 touchdowns and just four interceptions this season. Indiana’s running game has also been dominant and they rank first in the country in scoring at 46.4 points per game. The Hoosiers are also third in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 10.8 points per contest.
Penn State is in a tough spot. The Nittany Lions have dropped five straight games, are 0-5 in Big Ten play, and have lost the coach and quarterback that they started the season with. Their passing game has been limited after the injury to Drew Allar. The home crowd at Beaver Stadium could help them be more competitive, but the program is in transition after the midseason firing of James Franklin and they could get crushed by a hungry Indiana team.
Quarterback Play
Mendoza has been great this season for Indiana and has worked his way into the Heisman Trophy discussion. Only Julian Sayin of Ohio State has shorter odds to win the Heisman than Mendoza entering this week and there is plenty of time for Mendoza to change that.
Penn State is going with Ethan Grunkemeyer at quarterback since Allar went down for the season. He managed just 145 yards on 28 pass attempts last week against Ohio State. He is expected to struggle against another quality defense this week.
Betting Trends
- Indiana is 6-3 against the spread going into this game.
- Penn State is tied for the worst record in the country against the spread. They are 1-7 ATS for the season.
- The Hoosiers have seen six of their nine games go over their totals.
- Penn State has gone over the total in six of their first eight outings.
Indiana vs Penn State Model Projection
Score Projection: Indiana 44 – Penn State 17
Win Probability: Indiana 85%, Penn State 15%
Final Thoughts
Things are not going to get any easier for Penn State after they were beaten down by Ohio State last week. Indiana is elite on both sides of the ball. And while the Hoosiers are not quite as good defensively as Ohio State, they are better on offense and Indiana should put a big number on the scoreboard here. I’m going to lay the points with the Hoosiers in what could be a lopsided game in the Big Ten.
