The Colorado State Rams will face the San Diego State Aztecs in Mountain West Conference action on Friday. The Aztecs are off to a strong start to the season and will try to keep it that way as home favorites against a Colorado State team that has struggled offensively early on. Can the Aztecs improve to 4-1? Continue reading to get my Colorado State vs San Diego State prediction for Friday’s game.
Our Colorado State vs San Diego State Pick
- Pick: Under 41.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Colorado State Rams vs San Diego State Aztecs
- Date & Time: Friday, October 3, 2025, 10:30 PM EDT
- Venue: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Key Storylines
- San Diego State’s Defensive Dominance: The Aztecs have showcased a strong defense, highlighted by a 34-0 shutout victory over previously undefeated California. Their defense has allowed just 9.8 points per game and they will try to shut down another team in this contest at home.
- Colorado State’s Offensive Struggles: The Rams have faced challenges on offense, averaging only 15.3 points per game. Their recent 20-3 loss to Washington State showcased their difficulties in generating consistent scoring. The Rams have yet to score over 21 points in a game this year and that might not change against a good defensive opponent in this matchup.
- Quarterback Play: San Diego State quarterback Jayden Denegal hasn’t had to do much for San Diego State this year. He completed 15 of 18 passes for 186 yards and a touchdown in their win over California. But he has just three touchdown passes in four games and will just need to manage this game. Colorado State has tried both Jackson Brousseau and Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi at quarterback this year. Neither has been particularly effective, as the Rams have yet to beat an FBS opponent this season.
Betting Trends
- San Diego State’s Recent Form: The Aztecs have won three of their first four games, with their only loss being a 36-13 defeat to Washington State. The Aztecs are 3-1 against the spread and have had three of their four games go under their totals.
- Colorado State’s Recent Form: The Rams have struggled, losing three of their first four games. They are 2-2 against the spread to this point in the season and have also gone under the total in three of their first four games.
Colorado State vs San Diego State Model Projection
- Score Projection: San Diego State 24 – Colorado State 13
- Win Probability: San Diego State 85%, Colorado State 15%
Final Thoughts
The story of this game is going to be the defense of the San Diego State Aztecs. I expect SDSU to shut down Colorado State in this contest and for this game to feature plenty of punts and playing for field position. My best bet for this Mountain West contest is for the under to cash, as I can’t see Colorado State scoring more than a couple of touchdowns here.
