The Arizona State Sun Devils and Duke Blue Devils will square off in the 2025 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl on Wednesday in El Paso. Duke is coming off an ACC Championship victory and enters as a slight favorite against an Arizona State squad that finished with a solid 8-4 record. Before the Sun Devils and Blue Devils battle in the Sun Bowl, you can find my breakdown of this game and my Arizona State vs Duke prediction below.
Our Arizona State vs Duke Pick
| Pick: | |
| Confidence: | 4/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arizona State Sun Devils vs Duke Blue Devils
- Date & Time: Wednesday, December 31, 2025, 2:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
Duke enters the Sun Bowl as the favorite after winning the Atlantic Coast Conference and finishing 8-5 overall. Quarterback Darian Mensah leads an aerial attack that placed well within the FBS rankings this season, throwing for more than 3,600 yards with 30 scores against just five interceptions. He is expected to play in this game after announcing that he will come back for next season. That and the momentum from their run to the conference championship has Duke riding high going into this game.
The Sun Devils go into this contest with an 8-4 record, but they are dealing with an injury at the quarterback position. Sam Leavitt threw for over 1,600 yards this season with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. But he is done for the season and that has left the Sun Devils to finish out the season with a backup quarterback leading their offense, which could make things tough on them against a conference championship caliber opponent.
Quarterback Play
Duke’s Darian Mensah has been the engine of the Blue Devils’ offense, ranking near the top of the FBS in passing efficiency and touchdown passes. His ability to distribute the ball and limit turnovers gives Duke a major edge in consistency when compared to Arizona State’s quarterback situation.
Arizona State’s Jeff Sims provides mobility and physicality, offering a strong rushing threat to complement his passing duties in the place of Leavitt. However, Sims’ passing limitations compared to Mensah’s production could prove decisive if Duke’s defense can put together a solid 60 minutes and avoid blown coverages.
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the second-ever meeting between Duke and Arizona State in football. Arizona State won the first meeting in the 2014 Sun Bowl by a score of 36-31.
- Duke went 6-6-1 against the spread this season.
- Arizona State is 5-6-1 against the spread going into bowl season.
- Duke went over the total in 9 of their 13 games entering the Sun Bowl.
- The under has cashed in 8 of Arizona State’s 12 games.
Arizona State vs Duke Model Projection
Final Thoughts
