The Appalachian State Mountaineers will head to Boise to face the Boise State Broncos on Saturday at Albertsons Stadium. Both teams enter with a 2-1 record, but both teams have yet to prove themselves against quality competition yet this year. Here, I break down this non-conference matchup in college football and bring you my App State vs Boise State prediction from Idaho.
Our App State vs Boise State Pick
- Pick: App State +16.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Boise State Broncos
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
- Broadcast: FS1
App State vs Boise State Odds
| Bet Type | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Boise State -16.5 |
| Moneyline | Boise State -900, Appalachian State +550 |
| Total | 59.5 |
Key Storylines
- Boise State’s Offensive Firepower: Sophomore running back Dylan Riley has emerged as a dynamic playmaker, contributing over 250 total yards and five touchdowns in the Broncos’ recent 49-37 victory over Air Force. His ability to run the ball and catch it out of the backfield adds a significant dimension to Boise State’s offense.
- Appalachian State’s Turnover Troubles: In their 38-22 loss to Southern Miss, the Mountaineers gave away three costly interceptions, including two near the opponent’s goal line. Such mistakes against a team like Boise State could prove detrimental.
- Quarterback Health: Boise State’s starting quarterback Maddux Madsen exited the Air Force game with an injury. He is expected to play in this game but his health will be something to monitor in this contest on the blue turf.
Quarterback Play
- Maddux Madsen (Boise State): Before his injury, Madsen threw for 276 yards and two touchdowns against Air Force. His decision-making and leadership are crucial for the Broncos’ success and the Broncos are better off with him on the field.
- AJ Swann (Appalachian State): Swann has 879 passing yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions through three games for App State. If he can outplay Madsen, the Mountaineers could mount an upset bid in this contest.
Betting Trends
- Boise State: The Broncos are 2-1 against the spread this season.
- Appalachian State: App State is 1-2 against the spread this season and 0-1 on the road.
App State vs Boise State Model Projection
- Score Projection: Boise State 31, Appalachian State 27
- Win Probability: Boise State 85.6%, Appalachian State 14.4%
Final Thoughts
I expect Boise State to get a win at home in this contest over App State. But I don’t think it will be as lopsided as the point spread would indicate. The Broncos have a banged-up quarterback in Maddux Madsen and that could hold them back on offense here. I will take the points with App State in a game that should be decided by a possession or two.
