The Louisiana‑Monroe Warhawks face off with the Old Dominion Monarchs on Tuesday, in a Sun Belt Conference tournament opening round game that is huge for for both programs. ULM limps into this contest with a 4‑27 overall record and just 1‑17 in league play, while Old Dominion enters at 11‑20 and 7‑11 in the conference. Despite a disappointing regular season for both squads, this UL Monroe vs Old Dominion game presents a chance to reset and make noise in tournament play.
Our UL Monroe vs Old Dominion Pick
Pick: UL Monroe +10.5
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UL Monroe Warhawks @ Old Dominion Monarchs
- Date & Time: Tuesday, March 3, 2026, 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: Pensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, FL
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
- The Warhawks enter with one of the poorest records in Division I, though they did beat ODU 85‑79 on February 4, 2026, in a surprising result. That suggests they match up well enough to compete in a single-game situation.
- Old Dominion lost to ULM earlier this season but has since settled into more consistent play, including wins over South Alabama, Georgia State, and Louisiana Tech, showing they can compete within the Sun Belt Conference.
- This is a postseason game where both teams could look different than their results suggest. Tournament pressure often changes things, and the Monarchs at home have the advantage in front of their fans.
Key Players
Old Dominion Key Players
- Ketron Shaw: ODU’s leading scorer, averaging 17.1 points per game on efficient shooting. He makes this team go offensively.
- Caelum Swanton‑Rodger: A key rebounder pulling down about 5.0 boards per contest and contributing defensively.
- LJ Thomas: Offers additional scoring and plays important minutes that help stabilize the Monarchs when their starters struggle.
UL Monroe Key Players
- Krystian Lewis: The Warhawks’ primary offensive threat with around 18.1 points per game. He also leads the team in assists, giving ULM its floor leadership.
- Lavell Brodnex: Dominant inside with strong rebounding (around 8.2 boards per game) and an inside scoring presence.
- MJ Russell: Consistent scoring threat who shoots efficiently and gives ULM a third scorer on many occasions.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | UL Monroe | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 72.2 | 75.6 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 83.8 | 77.5 |
| Team Field Goal % | 41% | 44% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 32.4 | 35.1 |
| Assists Per Game | 12.3 | 12.9 |
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- Earlier this season, ULM upset Old Dominion 85‑79 in Norfolk, a result that was unexpected given the season-long struggles of the Warhawks.
- Both teams have losing records, but Old Dominion’s 7‑11 conference record suggests they were more competitive in Sun Belt play than ULM’s 1‑17 mark.
- UL Monroe went 17-12 against the spread this season, while Old Dominion was 16-14 ATS on the year.
UL Monroe vs Old Dominion Model Projection
Score Projection: UL Monroe 71 – Old Dominion 78
Win Probability: UL Monroe 35%, Old Dominion 65%
Final Thoughts
This game pits a struggling ULM club against a slightly better Old Dominion squad that has been more consistent throughout conference play. Though ULM’s upset earlier this year is noteworthy, the Monarchs should win this game straight up. Still, I’ll take the points with the Warhawks, as my projections make this a single-digit affair in Florida.
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