The 2026 NCAA Tournament continues on Friday with a first-round showdown, as the No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers travel to take on the No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm in San Diego. St. John’s arrives with significant momentum after capturing the Big East regular season and tournament titles, while Northern Iowa punched its ticket by winning the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. This Northern Iowa vs St. John’s contest should be an interesting one, and I break it all down here for you.
Northern Iowa vs St. John’s Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Northern Iowa Panthers @ St. John’s Red Storm
- Date & Time: Friday, March 20, 2026
- Venue: Viejas Arena, San Diego, California
Key Storylines
- St. John’s finished 28‑6, dominated Big East play with an 18‑2 record, and secured back‑to‑back conference tournament championships under Rick Pitino, giving them continuity and confidence entering March Madness.
- Northern Iowa, at 23‑12, captured the Missouri Valley Conference title despite a middling regular season, showcasing resilience and defensive strength that could trouble St. John’s in an upset scenario.
- St. John’s had a highly disappointing tournament last year, losing before the first weekend was over. They will try to avoid another disappointment by avoiding an upset in this matchup.
Key Players
St. John’s Red Storm
- Zuby Ejiofor (F): The Big East Player of the Year leads the Red Storm at roughly 16.3 PPG with 7.1 RPG and 3.5 APG, giving St. John’s a versatile star who impacts both ends of the floor.
- Bryce Hopkins (G/F): A secondary scoring option able to stretch defenses and provide physicality inside.
- Oziyah Sellers (G): Averaging around 10.7 PPG, Sellers offers perimeter shooting and secondary creation to keep pressure on opposing defenders.
Northern Iowa Panthers
- Trey Campbell (G): A team leader at 13.7 PPG and a primary facilitator, his ability to score and distribute will be central for UNI’s offense.
- Will Hornseth (F): Known for efficient shooting, Hornseth’s efficiency inside the arc helps Northern Iowa sustain offensive possessions.
- Leon Bond III (G/F): Provides two‑way contributions, helping on rebounding and defensive assignments against stronger offensive teams.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Northern Iowa | St. John’s |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 69.9 | 81.6 |
| Team Field Goal % | 48% | 45% |
| Rebounds per game | 31.9 | 38.6 |
| Assists per game | 15.0 | 16.3 |
Betting Trends
- St. John’s is 20-12-1 against the spread going into March Madness.
- Northern Iowa is 20-14-1 against the spread this season.
- The under is 20-14 in UNI’s games this year.
- St. John’s has seen 21 of their 33 games go under their totals.
Northern Iowa vs St. John’s Pick & Model Projection
- Score Projection: Northern Iowa 64 ‑ St. John’s 78 ATS PRO
- Pick: St. John’s -9.5 ATS PRO
- Confidence: 3 out of 5 ATS PRO
- Win Probability: Northern Iowa 32%, St. John’s 68% ATS PRO
While Northern Iowa earned its berth by winning the Missouri Valley Conference tournament and boasts a disciplined defense, St. John’s enters this game with superior offensive firepower, a significant strength advantage on both ends, and a much tougher schedule entering tournament time. The Red Storm’s ability to score inside and out, along with the leadership of Ejiofor, suggests they should control the pace and manage Northern Iowa’s pressure. I am going to lay the points with Rick Pitino’s Red Storm here.
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