The Louisville Cardinals and SMU Mustangs will meet in an ACC men’s basketball matchup on Tuesday night in Dallas. Louisville enters this duel riding a five-game winning streak, while SMU aims to bounce back on its home floor in a matchup that is meaningful as both teams push for better conference tournament seeding late in Atlantic Coast Conference play. Before this matchup tips off in the Metroplex, continue reading to get my Louisville vs SMU prediction.
Our Louisville vs SMU Pick
Pick:
Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Louisville Cardinals @ SMU Mustangs
- Date & Time: Tuesday, February 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Moody Coliseum, Dallas, Texas
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
Louisville has a five-game winning streak going into this matchup after an 82-71 victory against Baylor this past weekend. Freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr. has been exceptional, dominating with high scoring and playmaking that has elevated Louisville’s offensive consistency. His performance places Louisville firmly in control of key game outcomes in most games. Louisville is tied for sixth place in the ACC going into this game and a win would be huge for them as they look to move closer to the top four before ACC Tournament time.
SMU enters this contest with no injury issues reported, but inconsistent results have seen the Mustangs drop crucial road and home games, including a slip at home against Syracuse on Saturday. With averages near the top of the ACC in scoring offense and solid individual efforts from Boopie Miller and B.J. Edwards, SMU presents several scoring threats but must tighten up its defense and shot selection to contend with Louisville’s balanced attack.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Louisville leads the all-time series with SMU by a 10-2 margin, including an 88-74 home win earlier this season.
- Louisville is 14-11 against the spread going into this contest.
- SMU is 10-14-1 against the spread so far this season.
- The Mustangs are 15-9-1 to the over so far this year.
- The under is 14-11 in Louisville’s games entering Tuesday night.
Louisville vs SMU Model Projection
Score Projection:
Win Probability:
