The Calgary Stampeders will visit the BC Lions in the Western Semifinal in the 2025 CFL playoffs on Saturday. Both of these teams went 11-7 during the regular season and will try to keep their season alive in this game. Before the action begins in British Columbia, continue reading to get my Stampeders vs Lions prediction below.
Our Stampeders vs Lions Pick
- Pick: BC Lions -6
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025, 5:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: BC Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
- Broadcast: TSN / CFL+ (Canada)
Key Storylines
- The BC Lions enter the playoffs riding a six-game win streak to close the regular season. They got two wins over the Stampeders this year. The Lions appear to have peaked at the right time and have dominated this matchup head-to-head. But none of that will mean anything if they can’t avoid an upset here.
- The Stampeders have regained form with a three-game win streak heading into the playoffs. But their road form and playoff history Vancouver raise concerns going into this game.
- BC’s offense has been elite this season. They led the CFL in scoring during the regular season thanks to a great season from quarterback Nathan Rourke. They will try to breach a Calgary defense that ranks second in the league to Saskatchewan in points allowed.
- Playoff pressure is always a factor in games like this one. The team that can rise above that pressure the best will give themselves the best chance to win and advance to the Western Division final.
Quarterback Play
Lions quarterback Nathan Rourke has put up a monster season. He has thrown for 5,290 yards and 31 touchdowns. He also has 564 rushing yards with 10 rushing touchdowns. He has been particularly punishing against Calgary, racking up 745 passing yards and six touchdowns in two meetings with the Stamps this season.
Calgary’s Vernon Adams has a unique opportunity to get a playoff win over his former team in this game. He started his CFL career with BC and will try to take them down in this contest. To win this game, Adams must avoid turnovers, generate explosive plays, and keep his defense off the field for as long as possible to keep the ball away from Rourke.
Betting Trends & H2H
- BC defeated Calgary twice this season by an average of 21.5 points.
- The Stampeders are 10-8 against the spread so far this season.
- The Lions have gone 9-9 against the spread so far this year.
- The Lions have gone 12-6 to the over in the regular season.
- Calgary is 9-9 on over/unders this season.
Stampeders vs Lions Model Projection
Score Projection: BC Lions 31 – Calgary Stampeders 23
Win Probability: BC Lions 65%, Calgary Stampeders 35%
Final Thoughts
I expect the BC Lions to win and cover the spread on their home turf in this first-round playoff matchup. The Lions have a more consistent and explosive passing attack and they should be able to move the ball more effectively here. Vernon Adams Jr. will not be able to send his former team packing here, as the Lions should win with some margin at home.
