The Calgary Stampeders and BC Lions will meet in Week 18 of the CFL season. This is the only matchup between teams with a winning record on this week’s CFL schedule. It is also a huge game for the West Division playoff race, as these teams are separated by just a half-game. Before the action begins in British Columbia, you can continue reading to get my Stampeders vs Lions prediction for this week.
Our Stampeders vs Lions Pick
- Pick: Stampeders +3.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: BC Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
- Broadcast: TSN
Stampeders vs Lions Odds
| Odds | Line / Price |
|---|---|
| Spread | BC –3.5 |
| Moneyline | Calgary +180, BC –218 |
| Total | 55.5 |
Key Storylines
- Battle for second in the West: BC can lock in sole possession of second place with a win and they would likely control the tiebreakers against Calgary. A loss would complicate BC’s path into the postseason. Calgary desperately needs to stop its three-game slide and swing momentum its way.
- Momentum vs. slump: BC comes in on a three-game winning streak and are playing well both on offense and defense. Calgary has dropped three straight, giving up big point totals and failing to score consistently.
- Home field, home pressure: BC has had mixed outcomes in big home games this season. They are 4-3 at home so far this year. The Lions will want a convincing result at home to carry confidence into the playoffs.
Quarterback Play
Vernon Adams Jr. is aiming to regain his form from earlier in the season. Over the past four games, his production has dipped. Adams is averaging just 188.5 passing yards per game over that stretch, tossing two touchdowns against three interceptions. That dropoff coincides with Calgary’s recent struggles. BC beat Calgary convincingly in their last meeting and Adams struggled in that game. He will try to be better here.
BC quarterback Nathan Rourke is looking for a smoother performance than he had last time out. In a recent 27-22 win over Toronto, he posted 235 yards and one touchdown, but also threw three picks. Rourke is third in the CFL in passing yards and will try to level things out in this game at home.
Betting Trends
- Calgary is 8-6 straight up and 7-7 against the spread on the season.
- BC is 8-7 straight up and 7-8 against the spread going into Week 18.
- Calgary is 6-8 on over/unders in 2025.
- The Lions are 10-5 to the over in their games this year.
Stampeders vs Lions Model Projection
Score Projection: Calgary 24 – BC Lions 27
Win Probability: Calgary 35%, BC Lions 65%
Final Thoughts
I think we are in for a very close game between these West Division squads. The Stamps will be desperate to snap out of their recent funk and give up important ground in the playoff race. While I think the Lions will ultimately get the win at home, my best bet for this contest is for Calgary to cover the spread in what I think will be a field goal game.
