Matchday 3 | Group K | June 27, 2026 | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA | 7:30 PM ET
DR Congo and Uzbekistan meet in Atlanta with both teams still searching for their first win of the tournament, and the game state points toward more urgency than caution.
DR Congo mustered an unlikely point by drawing with group favorites Portugal before losing 1-0 to Colombia. Uzbekistan have 0 points after losing 3-1 to Colombia and 5-0 to Portugal. Neither team controls its own knockout path, but both have reason to push. For this reason, we are backing Over 2.5 goals in this battle of the Group K minnows.
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan Pick
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals -110
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Group K Scenarios
DR Congo win: DR Congo move to 4 points and give themselves a realistic chance of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams. They could also pressure Portugal for second if Portugal lose heavily to Colombia, though Portugal’s goal-difference cushion makes that route difficult.
Draw: DR Congo finish on 2 points and Uzbekistan finish on 1. That would almost certainly eliminate both teams from realistic knockout contention.
Uzbekistan win: Uzbekistan finish on 3 points and claim their first World Cup victory. Their goal difference is poor after heavy defeats to Colombia and Portugal, so even a win would likely leave them needing an unlikely set of third-place results elsewhere.
The practical takeaway is that DR Congo have the clearer incentive. A win gets them to 4 points, which is often enough to stay alive in a 48-team World Cup format. Uzbekistan cannot realistically sit on a draw either, so this is not a natural under game.
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan Match Preview
DR Congo are the better side and the winner lean, but the moneyline has shortened enough to make the total more appealing. At around -135 or shorter, DR Congo to win asks too much for a team that has scored only twice across two matches and still needs to convert pressure into clean chances. The over gives us a wider route through the most likely game state.
The case starts with Uzbekistan’s defensive record. They have conceded 8 goals in 2 matches, losing 3-1 to Colombia and 5-0 to Portugal. That does not mean DR Congo are suddenly as potent as Portugal, but it does show how quickly Uzbekistan can unravel once the first line of pressure is beaten. Their defensive structure has struggled against pace, physicality and direct runners. DR Congo have enough of that to cause problems.
Yoane Wissa is the key attacking piece. He scored against Portugal, gives DR Congo movement across the front line, and is the player most likely to turn transition moments into shots. With Chancel Mbemba, Arthur Masuaku and the wide support around him, DR Congo have the physical profile to lean into the matchup rather than simply play through slow possession.
Uzbekistan should still have more ambition than they showed against Portugal. This is their most manageable opponent in the group, and a first World Cup win would be a major moment even if qualification remains unlikely. Eldor Shomurodov remains the focal point, while Abbosbek Fayzullaev gives them the creativity to turn one loose spell into a goal. That matters because the cleanest over route is not just DR Congo winning comfortably. It is DR Congo 2-1.
There is risk. DR Congo’s first 2 matches both stayed under 2.5, and they have been defensively organized under Sébastien Desabre. But the matchup is different here. Colombia and Portugal were games where DR Congo could accept long stretches without the ball. Against Uzbekistan, they need to take more responsibility. Add Uzbekistan’s defensive issues into the mix and the pressure of a final group match, and Over 2.5 is the better betting angle than chasing a shortened DR Congo ML.
Betting Insights
- Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals is the best bet if available around -110. Uzbekistan have conceded 8 goals in 2 matches, while DR Congo need a win to reach 4 points.
- DR Congo moneyline: DR Congo are the winner lean, but the value is thinner if the ML has moved from -115 toward -135 or -140.
- Uzbekistan angle: Uzbekistan are difficult to trust defensively, but they should be more competitive here than they were against Portugal. Their scoring threat helps the over more than their moneyline.
- Correct score: DR Congo 2 – Uzbekistan 1 is the base projection, with 3-1 the higher-ceiling alternative if Uzbekistan’s defense breaks again.
The danger for the over is a slow first half. If DR Congo dominate territory but struggle to find the first goal, Uzbekistan will be happy to keep the game compact. But once either side scores, the match should open up because a draw does very little for either team.
Player Props
- Yoane Wissa Anytime Scorer: Wissa scored against Portugal and remains DR Congo’s most reliable attacking route. Against a defense that has conceded 8 goals, he is the clearest scorer prop.
- Eldor Shomurodov Anytime Scorer: Shomurodov is Uzbekistan’s main goal threat. If Uzbekistan do contribute to the over, he is the most likely player involved.
- DR Congo Team Total Over 1.5 Goals: This is the cleaner team-based prop. It fits the DR Congo winner lean without needing to lay the shortened moneyline.
- Both Teams to Score: This is a useful alternative to Over 2.5 if the price is better. DR Congo should create chances, but Uzbekistan have enough attacking quality to punish one loose spell.
Same Game Parlay
Clean build: DR Congo to win + Over 1.5 Goals. This keeps the winner lean while reducing the total requirement. A 2-0 or 2-1 DR Congo win both fit the bet.
Aggressive build: Over 2.5 Goals + Yoane Wissa anytime scorer + DR Congo to win. This follows the full 2-1 script, with Wissa leading the attack and Uzbekistan doing enough to keep the game open.
Predicted Lineups
DR Congo projected XI (4-2-3-1): Mpasi; Wan-Bissaka, Tuanzebe, Mbemba, Masuaku; Moutoussamy, Pickel; Bongonda, Kakuta, Elia; Wissa
Uzbekistan projected XI (4-2-3-1): Nematov; Alijonov, Khusanov, Ashurmatov, Aliev; Shukurov, Urunov; Fayzullaev, Masharipov, Khamdamov; Shomurodov
Lineups are projected and subject to late changes. DR Congo need a win to reach 4 points and keep a realistic third-place path alive, while Uzbekistan are chasing their first World Cup win.
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan Model Projection
Score Projection: DR Congo 2 – Uzbekistan 1
Win Probability: DR Congo 48%, Uzbekistan 25%, Draw 27%
DR Congo are the stronger side, but the shortened moneyline makes the total more attractive. Uzbekistan’s defensive record is the clearest data point in the match, and DR Congo’s need to win should force them into a more proactive approach than we saw against Portugal and Colombia.
The pick is Over 2.5 Goals at around -110. DR Congo to win remains the result lean, but the over captures more of the likely match scripts. A 2-1 DR Congo win is the base case, while a more chaotic final half-hour could push this into 3-1 or 2-2 territory.
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan FAQs
DR Congo are favored, but the moneyline has shortened from the earlier -115 range toward -135 or shorter. That makes the total more appealing than the side.
The best bet is Over 2.5 Goals if available around -110. Uzbekistan have conceded 8 goals in 2 matches, while DR Congo need a win to keep their third-place hopes alive.
DR Congo are the winner lean, but their price has shortened. Over 2.5 covers more scripts, including DR Congo 2-1, DR Congo 3-0, Uzbekistan 2-1, or a 2-2 draw.
DR Congo move to 4 points and give themselves an excellent chance of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams, depending on results elsewhere.
The projected score is DR Congo 2 – Uzbekistan 1.
Yoane Wissa anytime scorer is the best player prop. He scored against Portugal and is DR Congo’s clearest attacking threat.
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