The No. 1 overall pick is hockey’s biggest promise.
For the team making the selection, it is supposed to mean more than landing a good NHL player. The ideal outcome is a franchise center, a Norris-caliber defenseman, a game-breaking scorer, or a long-term cornerstone capable of changing the direction of an organization.
Of course, that does not always happen.
Some first-overall selections become superstars and justify every bit of pre-draft hype. Others turn into useful NHL players but get passed by a better player from the same class. And then there are the true misses: picks where the player never reaches the level expected of a franchise-changing prospect.
Looking back at the 20 NHL Drafts from 2006 through 2025, the overall record is better than many fans may think. Most No. 1 picks have become at least good NHL players. But being good is not the same thing as being the best player available, and that is where the real draft debate begins.
How We Judged NHL No. 1 Picks
There is an important difference between a hit and a redraft No. 1.
A player can be a successful first-overall selection without being the best player in his draft class. John Tavares, Nico Hischier and Rasmus Dahlin all fit that category. Each has been a major NHL success, but there is a legitimate hindsight case for another player from the same draft.
For this list, the categories are simple:
- Home run: A franchise player who would still be an easy – or at least highly defensible – No. 1 pick today.
- Hit, but not the best: A quality first-overall outcome, even if another player from the class may have surpassed him.
- Miss: A player who fell well short of the expected value of a No. 1 overall pick.
- Too early to call: The player may be trending well or poorly, but the class has not had enough time to settle.
NHL No. 1 Overall Pick Scorecard: 2006-2025
| Draft | No. 1 Pick | Verdict | Hindsight Take |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Erik Johnson | Miss at No. 1 | Good long-term NHL defenseman, but Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom and Brad Marchand created far greater value. |
| 2007 | Patrick Kane | Home run | Still the clear choice from his class. |
| 2008 | Steven Stamkos | Home run | A franchise scorer, though Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson keep the redraft debate alive. |
| 2009 | John Tavares | Hit, but debatable | A star center, but Victor Hedman has a strong case as the better career pick. |
| 2010 | Taylor Hall | Hit | A Hart Trophy winner, but Tyler Seguin and Mark Stone make this one of the closest calls. |
| 2011 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Good player, wrong class leader | A very good NHL career, but Nikita Kucherov became the clear prize of the draft. |
| 2012 | Nail Yakupov | Clear miss | The defining No. 1 overall miss of the modern era. |
| 2013 | Nathan MacKinnon | Home run | An easy No. 1 in hindsight. |
| 2014 | Aaron Ekblad | Hit, but surpassed | A top-pair defenseman, but Leon Draisaitl became the class’s defining star. |
| 2015 | Connor McDavid | Home run | The easiest call of the last 20 years. |
| 2016 | Auston Matthews | Home run | A franchise center and one of the best goal scorers of his generation. |
| 2017 | Nico Hischier | Hit, but surpassed | A captain and elite two-way center, but Cale Makar is the redraft choice. |
| 2018 | Rasmus Dahlin | Home run | A star defenseman, though Quinn Hughes, Brady Tkachuk and Andrei Svechnikov keep the class debate open. |
| 2019 | Jack Hughes | Home run | The Devils got their franchise offensive center. |
| 2020 | Alexis Lafrenière | Miss at No. 1 | A capable NHL winger, but Tim Stützle became the player teams would select first today. |
| 2021 | Owen Power | Too early to call | A legitimate NHL defenseman, but Wyatt Johnston has made the strongest early redraft case. |
| 2022 | Juraj Slafkovský | Too early to call | A promising power winger, but Logan Cooley and Lane Hutson have made the class far from settled. |
| 2023 | Connor Bedard | Too early, trending hit | Still the right pick, with a long way to go. |
| 2024 | Macklin Celebrini | Too early, trending home run | Already looks like a franchise centerpiece. |
| 2025 | Matthew Schaefer | Far too early | The early signs are excellent, but one NHL season cannot settle a draft. |
The Slam-Dunk No. 1 Picks
The best first-overall picks leave no room for regret. They become the player every team in the draft wishes it had selected.
Patrick Kane set the tone for Chicago’s championship era after going first in 2007. He was not just a talented winger; he became an MVP, a playoff star and one of the defining American-born players of his generation. There are plenty of good players from the 2007 class, but Kane remains the clear choice.
Nathan MacKinnon has become the standard for what a franchise center looks like. Colorado bet on his speed, power and competitive edge in 2013, and he developed into one of the league’s most dominant all-around players. Aleksander Barkov, Seth Jones and Sean Monahan were all strong prospects, but none has changed the outcome of that draft.
Then there is Connor McDavid.
The 2015 draft was never really a mystery. McDavid was viewed as a generational prospect before Edmonton selected him, and he has delivered on that level of expectation. He is the type of player No. 1 picks are meant to produce: a franchise-altering star who can carry an offense, win scoring titles and make every player around him more dangerous.
Auston Matthews belongs in the same category. Toronto needed a true No. 1 center, and Matthews became one almost immediately. His goal scoring alone puts him in rare company, but his two-way growth and ability to drive a line make the selection even stronger.
Jack Hughes also deserves to be treated as a home run. His early NHL seasons were uneven, but he developed into the elite offensive center New Jersey envisioned. His health will always be part of the conversation, but the actual player is not a question anymore: Hughes is a franchise-level talent.
Great Picks Who Were Not Necessarily the Best Player Available
This is where draft discussions often get unfair.
A first-overall pick does not become a failure because another team found a superstar later. The real question is whether the No. 1 pick gave the drafting team a true cornerstone.
John Tavares absolutely did that for the Islanders. He became a premier scoring center and one of the NHL’s most consistent offensive players. But Victor Hedman’s Norris-level defense, playoff résumé and championship impact give Tampa Bay’s No. 2 pick a real case as the better player from 2009.
Aaron Ekblad is similar. Florida landed a legitimate top-pair defenseman in 2014, and he has been a foundational part of the Panthers’ best years. Still, Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak and Brayden Point emerged from that class, making it impossible to say Ekblad was the best possible choice in hindsight.
Nico Hischier has done almost everything New Jersey could have wanted. He is a captain, an excellent two-way center and the type of player who helps a team win in difficult situations. But Cale Makar, selected fourth overall in 2017, became one of the most dynamic defensemen in the sport. Hischier is a hit; Makar is simply a different tier of outcome.
Rasmus Dahlin is another fascinating case. Buffalo has a star defenseman, and there is no serious argument that the Sabres made a bad pick. Still, Quinn Hughes became a franchise defenseman in his own right, while Brady Tkachuk and Andrei Svechnikov became major pieces for their organizations. Dahlin was worth the pick, but he has not run away from his class.
Taylor Hall may be the most complicated verdict. Winning a Hart Trophy means he cannot be called a disappointment. He was a legitimate star at his peak. But injuries, team context and the rise of players like Tyler Seguin and Mark Stone mean his No. 1 status remains more debatable than it once appeared.
The Biggest Misses
There are only a few No. 1 picks from this period that deserve the true “miss” label.
Nail Yakupov is the clearest example.
Edmonton selected Yakupov first overall in 2012 after he dominated the OHL and entered the draft with elite speed, release and offensive upside. But his NHL game never developed into a reliable top-line package. He struggled to produce consistently, could not establish himself as a long-term impact player, and was out of the NHL far too quickly for a No. 1 overall selection.
The difficult part for Edmonton is that the 2012 class was full of players who became stars. Andrei Vasilevskiy developed into one of the NHL’s elite goaltenders, Filip Forsberg became a premier scorer, and Connor Hellebuyck emerged as a franchise goaltender. The Oilers did not merely miss on a useful player; they missed in a draft that offered several elite alternatives.
Alexis Lafrenière is a softer version of the same story.
Lafrenière is not Yakupov. He has become a useful NHL winger and has shown he can contribute in a top-six role. But that is not enough for a consensus No. 1 overall pick who entered the league with superstar expectations. Tim Stützle has become the player most teams would select first from the 2020 class, while Lucas Raymond, Seth Jarvis and Jake Sanderson have also created stronger long-term cases.
The Rangers did not select a bust. They simply did not get the player that a No. 1 overall pick is supposed to become.
The Recent Picks Need Patience
The temptation is always to judge young players too quickly.
Owen Power has already established himself as an NHL defenseman, but the 2021 class is still developing. Wyatt Johnston’s scoring rise has made him an obvious redraft contender, while Power’s ultimate value may become clearer as he enters his prime years.
Juraj Slafkovský is also too early to judge harshly. He was a bold pick in 2022, and his combination of size, skill and physicality gives him a high ceiling. Logan Cooley and Lane Hutson may have made faster offensive impressions, but Slafkovský still has time to become one of the defining players in his class.
Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini are already moving toward the “obvious hit” category. Bedard remains the correct choice from 2023, even with Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson developing into excellent NHL players. Celebrini has looked even more immediate as a franchise centerpiece for San Jose.
Matthew Schaefer is far too early to judge after only one NHL season. The first-overall defenseman has shown the tools that made him such a highly regarded prospect, but defensemen often need several years before their full value becomes clear.
What the Last 20 Years Tell Us About Drafting No. 1 Overall
The biggest lesson is that drafting first overall is not a guarantee of selecting the best player.
Teams can identify the safest prospect, the most NHL-ready player or the player with the best pedigree and still watch someone else emerge as the true star of the class. Kucherov at No. 58, Mark Stone at No. 178, Cale Makar at No. 4 and Quinn Hughes at No. 7 are reminders that scouting is never an exact science.
But the No. 1 pick has still been a powerful asset.
From 2006 through 2020, the league produced clear home runs in Kane, Stamkos, MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews and Hughes. It also produced plenty of successful picks who were overtaken by another elite player but still gave their teams major value.
The true misses are memorable because they are so costly. A team only gets so many chances to pick first overall, and missing on that opportunity can delay a rebuild for years.
That is why the NHL Draft remains so compelling. The first pick comes with the greatest pressure, the biggest expectations and the least forgiveness. Sometimes it delivers Connor McDavid. Sometimes it delivers Nail Yakupov.
Most of the time, the answer falls somewhere in between.
