The Los Angeles Dodgers roll into Petco Park as baseball’s flagship franchise this season, sporting a 52-29 record and a comfortable lead in the National League West. San Diego, sitting at 42-37, is coming off a sweep of Atlanta and looking to make this NL West rivalry interesting again. Friday’s series opener pits Roki Sasaki against former Dodger Walker Buehler, and with both bullpens performing well this year, this could be a tighter contest than the standings alone might suggest.
Our Dodgers vs Padres Prediction
- Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-148)
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Dodgers vs Padres Model Projection
- Score Projection: Dodgers 6, Padres 4
- Win Probability: Dodgers 56%, Padres 44%
Los Angeles still holds the deeper lineup, and that gap shows up even with Sasaki’s bumpy 4.76 ERA on the mound. The Dodgers rank among the National League’s better offensive clubs in runs per game, and Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman give the lineup a top three that few teams can answer. San Diego counters with a strong bullpen anchored by Mason Miller, but its lineup has been inconsistent, and Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado have not produced at their usual level this year.
Buehler complicates the picture. He has been excellent across his last five outings, posting a 2.05 ERA with 24 strikeouts, and he clearly has something to prove against the team that let him leave. That makes this projection closer than the raw season numbers would indicate, but Los Angeles’ lineup depth and a healthy advantage in late-inning relief options still give the Dodgers the edge in a back-and-forth, moderately high-scoring game.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres
- Date & Time: Friday, June 26, 2026, 9:45 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Roki Sasaki (3-4, 4.76 ERA) vs Walker Buehler (4-3, 3.96 ERA)
- Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: Apple TV+
Dodgers vs Padres Same Game Parlay
- Leg 1: Dodgers Moneyline (-148)
- Leg 2: Roki Sasaki Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+116)
- Leg 3: Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Hits (-205)
Total Parlay Odds: +315 on DraftKings Sportsbook
Sasaki has gone deeper into games over his last month-plus and has the strikeout stuff to clear 5.5 against a Padres lineup that has had its share of swing-and-miss issues. Betts is one of the most reliable hitters in the sport for a single hit on a given night, and pairing those two player props with the Dodgers’ moneyline gives this parlay a reasonable floor without sacrificing the payout.
Dodgers vs Padres Home Run Prop
Pick: Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+300 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ohtani leads the Dodgers with 17 home runs and a .295 average this season, and he has shown no signs of slowing down. Buehler has a fly-ball tendency that can turn into trouble against true power hitters, and Petco Park’s marine air won’t be enough to fully offset Ohtani’s bat speed and pull-side strength. This prop carries real value given how often Ohtani has been the Dodgers’ offensive catalyst in 2026.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Season series: Dodgers lead 2-1.
- Dodgers record on the road this season: 26-15
- Padres record at home this season: 22-19
- The under is 44-37 in Dodgers games this season.
- The under is 44-34-1 in games involving the Padres in 2026.
Stat Comparison
| Category | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | .262 | .220 |
| OPS | .782 | .659 |
| wOBA | .343 | .292 |
| wRC+ | 118 | 87 |
| Team ERA | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| xFIP | 3.75 | 4.13 |
The numbers paint a clear picture: Los Angeles holds an edge in nearly every offensive category and a slight one in run prevention, even with two starters out of the rotation. San Diego’s bullpen has been a genuine strength, but its lineup output and rotation depth behind King and Buehler remain the team’s biggest issues heading into this set at Petco Park.
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