Panama and Croatia meet in Toronto with Group L pressure already intensifying after both teams opened the 2026 World Cup with a loss. Panama were beaten 1-0 by Ghana on Caleb Yirenkyi’s 95th-minute winner despite controlling long stretches of the match, while Croatia fell 4-2 to England in a wide-open contest. The stakes are now higher than simply avoiding a second defeat: depending on the result between England and Ghana, the loser could be left on the brink of elimination before the final group fixture.
Panama vs Croatia Pick
- Pick: Croatia Moneyline -200
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Panama vs Croatia Match Preview
Panama have reason to feel frustrated after their opener. Thomas Christiansen’s side had 62% possession against Ghana, completed 502 passes, and produced 12 shots. Ghana did not register an attempt until the 48th minute, yet Panama still left Toronto with no points after Yirenkyi struck deep into stoppage time.
There was control in Panama’s performance, but the final ball was often missing. Their 0.75 expected goals total showed that much of the possession came in less dangerous areas. That issue becomes more significant against Croatia, especially with Adalberto Carrasquilla unavailable. The key midfielder was already managing a muscle issue and has now been ruled out of this match, leaving Panama with less quality in possession and fewer reliable routes from buildup play into attacking areas.
Panama will need more from Cristian Martínez, José Luis Rodríguez, and Ismael Díaz in transition. They created enough territorial control against Ghana to stay competitive, but Croatia are likely to have more of the ball and should be better equipped to punish loose moments in midfield.
Croatia arrive after a defensive display that concerned Zlatko Dalić. England created 2.8 expected goals from 22 shots in their 4-2 win, while Croatia generated 0.71 expected goals from 10 attempts. Croatia did score twice through Martin Baturina and Petar Musa, but England found too much room after halftime and pulled away.
Dalić has called for a sharper response, particularly around defensive concentration and set pieces. Croatia still have the edge in individual quality, though. Luka Modrić could make his 200th international appearance if he features, while Mateo Kovačić and Joško Gvardiol give Croatia more composure and experience than Panama faced against Ghana. The main question is whether Croatia can turn their expected possession advantage into clearer chances before Panama settle into a compact shape.
This matchup should feel different from Croatia’s meeting with England. Panama are likely to keep more bodies behind the ball, limit open-field sequences, and make Croatia work through multiple defensive lines. That can create a slow opening, but Croatia have enough tournament experience to stay patient rather than force high-risk passes early.
Panama’s route to an upset is clear. They need to keep the game level deep into the second half, protect central areas without Carrasquilla, and find Díaz or Rodríguez in space after Croatian turnovers. Croatia should have more possession and create the better chances, but Panama showed against Ghana that they can make opponents work hard for every opening.
Betting Insights
- Croatia are priced between roughly -185 and -210 on the moneyline across current market snapshots.
- Panama are available between roughly +550 and +600 for an outright win.
- The draw is priced around +310 to +320.
- Over 2.5 goals is trading around -130 to -135, while Under 2.5 sits near +106 to +110.
- Panama have lost all four of their World Cup group-stage matches across 2018 and 2026, conceding in every one.
- Croatia allowed 22 England shots in their opener, but Panama may not generate the same attacking volume without Carrasquilla.
The moneyline is the cleaner way to approach Croatia. The price is not cheap, but Croatia have the stronger midfield, more tournament experience, and a better chance of improving from an underwhelming first match. Panama’s injury absence also removes an important piece from their possession game.
Panama vs Croatia Model Projection
- Score Projection: Panama 0 – Croatia 2
- Win Probability: Panama 14%, Draw 21%, Croatia 65%
Croatia should control territory and possession, though Panama have enough defensive organization to avoid an early collapse. The first goal matters enormously. If Croatia score before halftime, Panama will have to open up, which would favor Modrić, Kovačić, and Croatia’s attacking runners.
Panama can stay competitive for long spells, but Carrasquilla’s absence lowers their chance of turning possession into sustained pressure around the Croatian penalty area. Croatia are the better side and should have enough quality to secure a needed 2-0 win.
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