The Dallas Wings travel to San Francisco on Wednesday night for a Commissioner’s Cup showdown against the Golden State Valkyries in a game featuring two of the WNBA’s hottest teams. Dallas enters after a stunning 96-66 victory over Las Vegas, while Golden State is coming off a dominant 78-58 win over Los Angeles. Both clubs have exceeded expectations during the opening portion of the season, making this one of the most intriguing games on the Wednesday slate.
The Wings have been powered by the backcourt duo of Paige Bueckers and rookie Azzi Fudd. Bueckers has taken another step forward in her second season, averaging 19 points per game while shooting over 40% from three-point range. Fudd has quickly become one of the league’s most productive rookies and provides another perimeter scoring threat that defenses must account for. Dallas also arrives with confidence after dismantling one of the league’s elite teams earlier this week.
Golden State has built its success differently. The Valkyries have become one of the toughest defensive teams in the WNBA, ranking among the league leaders in defensive rating and opponent field-goal percentage. Their balanced offense features contributions from multiple players, while Gabby Williams continues to serve as a versatile playmaker on both ends of the floor. The Valkyries have won three straight games and have turned Chase Center into one of the toughest road environments in the league.
Our Wings vs Valkyries Prediction
- Pick: Golden State Valkyries -3.5
- Confidence: 3.5 out of 5
Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries Model Projection
- Score Projection: Golden State Valkyries 82 – Dallas Wings 77
- Win Probability: Golden State Valkyries 61%, Dallas Wings 39%
Dallas deserves respect after its convincing victory over Las Vegas, but this spot sets up well for Golden State. The Valkyries own one of the league’s strongest defensive units and play at a slower tempo that frequently forces opponents out of rhythm. Golden State also enters with home-court advantage and a three-game winning streak.
The Wings have more star power in the backcourt, yet Golden State’s defensive depth and ability to limit quality perimeter looks should be the difference. Expect a competitive game for most of the night before the Valkyries gradually create separation during the second half. Our projected total also lands slightly below most market expectations, making the under worth consideration.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Wings @ Golden State Valkyries
- Date & Time: June 17, 2026, 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, California
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries Same Game Parlay
- Leg 1: Golden State Valkyries Moneyline -148
- Leg 2: Under 165.5 Total Points -115
- Leg 3: Gabby Williams Over 16.5 Points -113
Parlay Odds: +455
The foundation of this parlay is Golden State’s defense. The Valkyries have held opponents below their season scoring average consistently and recently limited Los Angeles to only 58 points. Their ability to slow the pace supports both the moneyline and under selections.
Williams has been playing excellent basketball during Golden State’s winning streak and is coming off a team-high 16-point performance. Dallas focuses heavily on perimeter containment, which should create opportunities for Williams to attack the paint and reach the 17-point mark.
Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries Prop Bet
Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 Assists +120
Bueckers continues to operate as the primary creator for Dallas and has developed excellent chemistry with Fudd and the Wings’ frontcourt. Golden State’s defensive pressure often forces opposing lead guards into facilitating rather than scoring. That setup makes assists a more attractive option than her points market. Even if scoring opportunities become limited, Bueckers should remain heavily involved as a distributor throughout the game.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Golden State won 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams during the 2025 season.
- This is the first meeting between these teams in 2026.
- Golden State is 7-7 against the spread this season.
- Dallas enters this game with a 9-5 record against the spread this year.
Stat Comparison
| Category | Dallas Wings | Golden State Valkyries |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive Rating | 110.4 | 109.8 |
| Defensive Rating | 102.7 | 102.0 |
| Net Rating | +7.7 | +7.9 |
| Pace | 95.91 | 92.31 |
| Effective FG % | 51.4% | 48.8% |
| Rebound % | 51.6% | 48.8% |
These teams are very evenly matched, as their offensive and defensive rating this season would illustrate. But Golden State’s defense and home-court advantage make the Valkyries the preferred side for me. My projection calls for a relatively low-scoring game with Golden State earning a hard-fought victory.
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