The goal for every NFL team is to hold up the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season, but as far as individual awards go, nothing tops being crowned Most Valuable Player. The coveted award has been voted on by The Associated Press since 1957, and the process used to be quite simple—50 sportswriters cast a single vote each at the end of the regular season—but it changed in 2022. Now, voters submit a ranked list of five players, and whoever has the most points wins.
Though other positions (namely running back) have won the MVP award in various seasons, the honor is typically bestowed upon quarterbacks, who’ve claimed 47 of the 68 awards handed out from 1957 to 2023. Before Lamar Jackson landed the last trophy, the previous five winners had led the league in touchdown rate. The MVP has also always been chosen from a team with a winning record, and the last 27 winners hailed from teams with double-digit wins.
Because the MVP is picked at the end of the regular season, the playoffs aren’t taken into consideration; when Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes earned the award for 2022, and his team won the Super Bowl three days later, it marked the first time since the 1999 season that the MVP also won the Super Bowl (when it was Kurt Warner and the St. Louis Rams). Since Tom Brady took home his third honor in 2017, Mahomes has won twice, as have Jackson and Aaron Rodgers. But, 2016 featured one of the biggest long-shot MVP winners in professional sports history: Matt Ryan entered the season with 75-1 odds, according to ATS.io.
As of May 1, Mahomes had the best odds of winning the 2024 award, according to Sports Odds History, but it’s always fun to look at the dark horses. ATS.io compiled a list of 10 of the best long-shot bets to win MVP.
Read on to learn more about each player and decide if they’re worth betting on.
Jared Goff
– Preseason odds: +4000
– Team: Detroit Lions
In 2023, quarterback Jared Goff led the Detroit Lions to their first playoff victory in more than three decades. Their Super Bowl hopes ended at the NFC Championship Game, but fans are looking forward to another run. The three-time Pro Bowler had one of his best seasons last year, finishing with career highs of a 67.3% completion rate and 30 touchdown passes. Ten of those touchdowns were caught by wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who also marked a career season last year. If the offense keeps improving, Goff’s ninth season in the NFL could be his best yet.
Kirk Cousins
– Preseason odds: +3500
– Team: Atlanta Falcons
After spending six seasons apiece with Washington and Minnesota, Kirk Cousins will suit up as the Atlanta Falcons’ starting quarterback after signing a four-year, $180 million contract during the offseason. The four-time Pro Bowler tore his Achilles tendon in 2023, and the Vikings went 7-10 and missed the playoffs after going 13-4 in 2022. Drake London was Atlanta’s most productive pass-catcher last season with 905 receiving yards; however, he caught only two touchdown passes. Cousins and the Falcons’ receiving corps have yet to play a game snap together, so it’s worth watching how they mesh.
Anthony Richardson
– Preseason odds: +3500
– Team: Indianapolis Colts
When the Indianapolis Colts chose Anthony Richardson with the #4 pick in 2023, it was to be their franchise quarterback. After just one preseason game, the team named him the starter even though he had started only 13 games in college. Richardson’s rookie season ended early when he suffered a shoulder injury in Week 5, but he showed promise during his four outings, completing nearly 60% of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns compared to one interception. He will start again, and if he improves and his talent translates to the NFL, Richardson could be a force.
Tua Tagovailoa
– Preseason odds: +2500
– Team: Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa has struggled to stay healthy since getting drafted as the #5 pick by the Miami Dolphins in 2020. Injuries ranging from fractured ribs to concussions have kept the quarterback sidelined for a handful of games since he became the team’s starter midway through 2020. But, in 2023, he started every game for the first time in his career and he did not disappoint. Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards with 4,624, achieved his highest completion rate at 69.3%, and was a first-time Pro Bowler. The 26-year-old quarterback is primed to continue that momentum in 2024—as long as he can stay healthy.
Trevor Lawrence
– Preseason odds: +2500
– Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars were in desperate need of help when they drafted Trevor Lawrence #1 overall in 2021 following a 1-15 campaign. The team improved during the quarterback’s rookie year but still went 3-14. Then, in 2022, everything changed. Lawrence’s passer rating jumped from 71.9 to 95.2; he was a Pro Bowler; and he led the franchise to its first postseason appearance since 2017 with a 9-8 record. Lawrence left four games and missed one because of injuries in 2023, and his numbers slipped, but the team still went 9-8 again. This marked the first time the Jaguars had back-to-back winning seasons since 2004-05.
Aaron Rodgers
– Preseason odds: +2000
– Team: New York Jets
After spending 18 seasons with Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets in 2023, and all eyes were on the 40-year-old quarterback during their opener against the Buffalo Bills. But his season lasted just four plays. On the Jets’ first drive of the game, Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon—an injury that he initially thought would end his career. He’s expected to play in 2024, and one expert even predicted he will defeat his former team in Super Bowl 59.
Matthew Stafford
– Preseason odds: +2000
– Team: Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford did the extraordinary during his first season with the Rams in 2021, leading the franchise to its first Super Bowl win from Los Angeles. The following season was not so magical. The quarterback played just nine games before a spinal cord contusion ended his season in Week 11. Stafford bounced back in 2023 and was a Pro Bowl selection for just the second time in his 15-year career. The Rams made a late-season run and squeaked into the playoffs but lost to the Lions, Stafford’s former team, in the wild-card round. Their roster is similar this year, so Stafford could be poised for another successful season.
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Jalen Hurts
– Preseason odds: +1600
– Team: Philadelphia Eagles
It’s hard to believe the Philadelphia Eagles were able to snag Jalen Hurts with the #53 pick in the 2020 draft. After starting four games during his rookie season, the quarterback was named the full-time starter in 2021 and quickly proved that to be the right decision. The Eagles made the playoffs, and then Hurts led the team to the Super Bowl in 2022. In addition to those successes, Hurts’ 101.5 passer rating helped him achieve his first Pro Bowl selection in his second year as a mainstay. His passer rating dipped in 2023 to 89.1, but Hurts was still a Pro Bowler for the second year in a row.
This season looks promising for Philly, which signed running back Saquon Barkley during the offseason. Adding a three-down back should boost an already dominant running game—and maybe Hurts’ numbers, too.
Brock Purdy
– Preseason odds: +1600
– Team: San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy wasn’t supposed to play a snap during his rookie season. The San Francisco 49ers chose him with the last pick of the 2022 draft, but “Mr. Irrelevant” became relevant fast after a string of injuries pushed him to start five games. To the surprise of everyone, Purdy not only played lights-out, accumulating a passer rating of 107.3, but he also led his team to the NFC Championship Game. The next season, Purdy was named the starter and did even better. His passer rating rose to 113, and he was selected for the Pro Bowl. He also took the 49ers to Super Bowl 58. Purdy is poised to continue evolving in his third season, as San Francisco hopes to make it to the big game for the third time in six years.
Dak Prescott
– Preseason odds: +1600
– Team: Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott’s 2023 season was his best yet in many statistical categories. The Dallas Cowboys quarterback threw for an NFL-high 36 touchdowns and tallied his highest passer rating of 105.9. He was also selected to the Pro Bowl for the third time in his eight-year career. The postseason, however, has been a different story for the Cowboys. Despite going 12-5 every year from 2021 to 2023, the team couldn’t get past the divisional round. The last time Dallas made it to the conference championship game was when it won the Super Bowl in 1995.
Data reporting by Karim Noorani. Story editing by Mike Taylor. Additional editing by Kelly Glass. Copy editing by Robert Wickwire. Photo selection by Clarese Moller.
