The NL Central race is under the spotlight on Friday night as the Chicago Cubs head to Busch Stadium for the start of a key divisional series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Chicago snapped a brutal 10-game skid earlier this week and now tries to build off that result against a Cardinals club that has also struggled lately. Both teams enter the night trying to keep pace with Milwaukee in the division standings, which gives this Cubs vs Cardinals series extra importance before the calendar turns to June.
Our Cubs vs Cardinals Pick
- Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
- Confidence: 3.5 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals
- Date & Time: Friday, May 29, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Shota Imanaga vs Andre Pallante
- Stadium: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
- Broadcast: MLB.TV
Key Storylines
- Chicago recently ended a 10-game losing streak after beating Pittsburgh in convincing fashion. They have won two straight games since that losing streak and will try to continue their recent turnaround here.
- The Cubs remain one of the better offensive teams in the National League in runs scored and on-base percentage.
- St. Louis enters the series after dropping a close divisional game against Milwaukee. The Cards have lost four games in a row and now sit 4.5 games out of first place in the NL Central standings.
- The Cardinals continue to deal with injuries to Lars Nootbaar and Ramon Urias.
- Both clubs sit within striking distance of first place in the NL Central, but losing this series would drop them further behind the Brewers in the race.
Pitching Matchup
Shota Imanaga has not looked as dominant as he did during stretches of last season, though his numbers still suggest he can settle into a productive summer run. The left-hander enters Friday with a 4-5 record, a 4.04 ERA, 67 strikeouts, and a 1.07 WHIP across 64.2 innings. His command remains strong, and his ability to limit walks gives Chicago a stable floor in most outings.
The concern for Cubs backers has been the long ball. During the club’s losing streak, Chicago starters struggled badly, and Imanaga was part of that rough stretch. Even so, St. Louis has not consistently punished left-handed pitching this season, and Busch Stadium tends to help pitchers settle in.
Andre Pallante has quietly given St. Louis dependable innings with a 3.76 ERA over 55 innings. He attacks the strike zone and keeps the ball on the ground, though his strikeout rate remains modest. Chicago’s lineup matches up well against pitchers who pitch to contact, especially with hitters like Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki capable of creating traffic on the bases.
Key Players
- Ian Happ, Cubs: Happ broke out with a five-RBI game earlier this week and may be heating up after a difficult stretch.
- Nico Hoerner, Cubs: Hoerner owns a .254 average with strong on-base numbers and continues to set the tone near the top of the lineup.
- Seiya Suzuki, Cubs: Suzuki remains one of Chicago’s top power threats despite recent inconsistency.
- Jordan Walker, Cardinals: Walker has emerged as one of the biggest run producers in the St. Louis lineup. He leads the Cardinals in batting average, home runs, and RBI this season.
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first meeting of the season between the Cubs and Cardinals.
- The over is 32-24-1 in Cubs games so far this season.
- The under is 28-23-3 in games involving the Cardinals in 2026.
Cubs vs Cardinals Model Projection
- Score Projection: Chicago Cubs 5 – St. Louis Cardinals 3
- Win Probability: Chicago Cubs 57%, St. Louis Cardinals 43%
Chicago enters this matchup with the stronger offense. Even during their losing streak, the Cubs continued to draw walks and create opportunities, but poor starting pitching buried them early in games. If Imanaga delivers a steady outing, Chicago has enough lineup depth to pressure the Cardinals’ bullpen late. My projections make the Cubs a winner by around two runs, so I’ll go with them to open this series with a win.
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