The Western Conference semifinal series between the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs has turned into one of the toughest playoff battles of the second round. After Minnesota pulled out a 114-109 win in Game 4, the series is now tied 2-2 heading into a critical Game 5 in San Antonio. Anthony Edwards carried the Timberwolves with 36 points in the last game, while the Spurs were forced to play without Victor Wembanyama for most of the night after his early ejection. Wembanyama is eligible to return for Tuesday night, and that could make all the difference in Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 5.
Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 5 Pick
- Pick: Timberwolves +10.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
- Date & Time: Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
- Broadcast: NBC, Peacock
Key Storylines
The biggest storyline entering Game 5 is the return of Victor Wembanyama. The San Antonio Spurs star was ejected early in Game 4 after a Flagrant 2 foul against Naz Reid, and San Antonio still nearly stole the game on the road. The NBA declined further discipline, meaning Wembanyama will be available in front of the home crowd Tuesday night.
Another major factor is Anthony Edwards’ health. Edwards briefly exited Game 4 after appearing to tweak his knee, but he returned and completely took over in the second half. Minnesota needs that level of offensive aggression again because the Timberwolves have struggled badly in San Antonio during this series.
Rebounding has also become a deciding factor. Minnesota grabbed 15 offensive rebounds in each of the last two games, giving the Timberwolves valuable extra possessions. San Antonio must clean that up if it wants to regain control of the series.
Key Players
San Antonio Spurs
- Victor Wembanyama: Wembanyama has averaged 21.9 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 5.0 blocks during the playoffs. His defensive presence completely changes the floor spacing for Minnesota. Before his Game 4 ejection, the Spurs had controlled much of the series physically.
- De’Aaron Fox: Fox continues to pressure Minnesota’s perimeter defense with his speed and downhill drives. His ability to create offense early in possessions prevents the Timberwolves from getting comfortable defensively.
- Stephon Castle: The rookie guard has become a major part of the Spurs rotation. Castle recorded 12 assists in Game 3 and continues to provide steady ball movement and perimeter defense.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Anthony Edwards: Edwards delivered 36 points in Game 4 and continues to carry the Minnesota Timberwolves offensively. His scoring ability keeps Minnesota competitive even when the half-court offense stalls.
- Rudy Gobert: Gobert posted 11 points and 13 rebounds in Game 4. Minnesota depends on his rebounding and rim protection to slow Wembanyama inside.
- Julius Randle: Randle gives Minnesota another physical scoring option in the paint and along the boards. His toughness has mattered in this physical series.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This series is tied 2-2 entering Game 5.
- The Wolves hold a 4-3 lead in the season series between these teams.
- Three of the four games in this series have been decided by under 10 points.
Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 5 Model Projection
- Score Projection: Spurs 116 – Timberwolves 103
- Win Probability: Spurs 74%, Timberwolves 26%
Game 4 showed how dangerous Minnesota can be when Edwards gets rolling and the Timberwolves dominate second-chance points. Still, San Antonio nearly escaped with a win despite losing Wembanyama early. The Spurs have been the better team overall in this series and they should get a win at home in this pivotal Game 5. But I’ll take the points with the Wolves on the road here, as we should see another competitive game in Texas.
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