The Western Conference semifinal series between the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs shifts to Minneapolis on Friday with the series tied 1-1. San Antonio answered in a major way during a 133-95 blowout victory in Game 2 after the Wolves upset them in the opener. The Spurs controlled the pace from the second quarter onward, forced 22 turnovers, and held Minnesota to its lowest-scoring first half of the season. Now the Timberwolves return home to a building where they have played far better during the postseason, and will try to use that to their advantage in Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 3.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 3 Pick
- Pick: Timberwolves +3.5
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
- Date & Time: Friday, May 8, 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
San Antonio enters Game 3 with confidence after delivering one of its best all-around performances of the postseason in Game 2. Victor Wembanyama looked far more comfortable after a quiet Game 1, while the Spurs’ defense completely disrupted Minnesota’s offensive rhythm. No Timberwolves player scored more than 12 points in Game 2, a testament to how good the Spurs were on defense in that contest.
The Minnesota Timberwolves now need a major response at home. Anthony Edwards is still working through knee discomfort after suffering a hyperextension earlier in the playoffs, and his explosiveness has looked lacking at times. Minnesota also struggled badly against San Antonio’s length in the paint during Game 2, which raises concerns about how the Timberwolves can create efficient offense if Edwards is not fully healthy.
Key Players
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Anthony Edwards: Edwards remains the engine of Minnesota’s offense despite dealing with knee soreness, but San Antonio held him to 12 points in Game 2. Minnesota needs him attacking early and getting to the free-throw line instead of settling for contested jumpers.
- Julius Randle: Randle gives Minnesota needed scoring and can stretch the floor against Wembanyama. He finished with 12 points in Game 2 and also leads the club with 5.0 assists per game. His passing becomes important when San Antonio traps Edwards on the perimeter.
- Rudy Gobert: Gobert’s rebounding and rim protection are essential if Minnesota wants to slow San Antonio’s attack. He averaged 11.5 rebounds during the season, but the Spurs controlled the glass in stretches of Game 2.
San Antonio Spurs
- Victor Wembanyama: Wembanyama bounced back with 19 points and 15 rebounds in Game 2 while dominating defensively. His length changes everything near the basket, and Minnesota struggled finishing around him.
- De’Aaron Fox: Fox gives the San Antonio Spurs speed that Minnesota has struggled to contain. He posted 16 points in Game 2 and continues to pressure defenders in transition. His ability to collapse the defense creates open perimeter shots for the Spurs.
- Stephon Castle: Castle led the Spurs with 21 points in Game 2 and continues to grow into a major playoff contributor. His ability to attack off the dribble gives San Antonio another scoring option beyond Wembanyama and Fox.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- San Antonio and Minnesota have split the first 2 games of the series.
- The Wolves are 3-2 against the Spurs this season, including the regular season and playoffs.
- The Spurs are 50-37-2 against the spread this season.
- The Timberwolves are 41-48 against the spread this season.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 3 Model Projection
- Score Projection: Spurs 111 – Timberwolves 110
- Win Probability: Spurs 54%, Timberwolves 46%
Game 3 should be far more competitive than Game 2, especially with Minnesota returning home. The Timberwolves should play with far more urgency, and Edwards is likely to be more aggressive offensively after a disappointing outing. The actual winner of this game could be either team, in my opinion, but I think that the Wolves will cover the spread as an underdog of more than one possession no matter who comes out on top in the end.
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