Three days ago, BetMGM’s Conn Smythe betting insights showed Mitch Marner had already made one of the biggest moves of the postseason, climbing from +6600 to +150. That alone was a massive market statement. Now, the latest BetMGM snapshot shows the move did not stop there.
Marner has shortened again, from +150 to -250, turning a strong favorite case into a heavy favorite case. At this point, the market is no longer treating him as the leading contender. It is pricing him as the player to beat by a clear margin.
The rest of the board tells its own story. Frederik Andersen has gone the other way, falling from +350 to +5000, while Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven have improved slightly, moving from +575 to +500 and from +700 to +650, respectively. In other words, what looked like a competitive race a few days ago now looks far more top-heavy.
The Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded to the most valuable player of the NHL playoffs.
How BetMGM’s Conn Smythe Market Shifted From Open to the Latest Snapshot
Important: this graph uses implied probability instead of raw American odds, which makes the movement easier to compare visually. Marner’s surge is the dominant story, while Andersen’s line has collapsed from a legitimate contender price to a long-shot number.
| Player | Open | Previous Snapshot | Latest Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner | +6600 | +150 | -250 |
| Frederik Andersen | +15000 | +350 | +5000 |
| Taylor Hall | +20000 | +575 | +500 |
| Logan Stankoven | +15000 | +700 | +650 |
Latest Conn Smythe Odds Movement
The most important part of this update is not just that Marner shortened. It is that he shortened again after already becoming the clear market favorite. Moving from +6600 to +150 was the kind of swing that gets attention. Moving from +150 to -250 changes the entire shape of the award race.
That is the difference between being a popular contender and being priced as the likely winner. Marner now leads BetMGM’s latest ticket share at 11.8% and has increased his handle share from 17.9% to 21.2%. That means the market is not only holding its position on him. It is concentrating even more heavily around him.
Andersen is the clearest casualty of that movement. He was +350 in the previous snapshot and looked like a real Conn Smythe threat if Carolina could lean into the goalie narrative. Now he is +5000, which tells you the market has largely moved on from that case.
BetMGM Conn Smythe Betting Insights: Previous Snapshot vs. Latest Snapshot
The best way to understand how sharply this market has changed is to compare BetMGM’s previous snapshot with the latest one. Marner has gone from favorite to heavy favorite, Andersen’s case has cratered, and Hall and Stankoven are still hanging around as Carolina-based long shots.
The table makes the current market pretty easy to read. Marner is the only player who has moved into odds-on territory, while Andersen has lost almost all of the momentum he had built in the previous snapshot. Hall and Stankoven have shortened slightly, but neither has made anything close to Marner’s move.
Marner: From Strong Favorite to Clear Favorite
Three days ago, Marner at +150 already looked like the market’s loudest opinion. The latest BetMGM update pushed him all the way to -250, which is a very different kind of pricing. At that point, you are no longer talking about a player who leads the race. You are talking about a player the market believes should win more often than not.
That lines up with the rest of the BetMGM data, too. Marner’s handle share rose from 17.9% to 21.2%, and he moved from second in ticket share at 11.4% to first at 11.8%. That is a meaningful combination. The market is not just reacting to one performance. It is becoming more concentrated around him.
The betting question is whether there is still value at the current number. That is much harder to argue now. Anyone who grabbed Marner at +6600, +1500, or even +150 is in a great position. Laying -250 in a playoff futures market is a different conversation. You are no longer buying upside. You are buying the current favorite at peak market confidence.
Andersen: The Biggest Reversal on the Board
No player’s market changed more dramatically in the wrong direction than Frederik Andersen’s. In the previous BetMGM snapshot, he had already surged from +15000 to +350 and ranked among the book’s biggest handle positions. In the latest update, he has drifted all the way to +5000.
That does not mean he is completely out of the conversation, but it does mean the market no longer sees him as Carolina’s best Conn Smythe path. His handle share also slipped from 15.8% to 14.9%. Compared to where he stood a few days ago, the story has clearly cooled.
The problem for Andersen is simple. Goalie Conn Smythe cases need clean momentum, and his has been interrupted. For him to re-enter the race in a real way, Carolina would likely need to turn the series around with Andersen as the central reason. The market is not treating that as a likely script right now.
Hall and Stankoven: Still the Better Carolina Lottery Tickets
If you still want a Carolina angle, Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven remain more appealing than Andersen from a pure price-versus-path standpoint. Hall improved from +575 to +500, while Stankoven moved from +700 to +650. Those are not massive jumps, but they do show that the market has kept both players alive as plausible alternatives if the series turns.
The issue is obvious: any bet on Hall or Stankoven is also a bet on Carolina flipping the series and one player separating from the pack late. That is still possible, but the market is making it clear that Marner is now the central figure in the race.
Between the two, Hall has the shorter number and the cleaner movement, while Stankoven remains slightly longer and still has enough market interest to be worth mentioning. Neither is close to Marner right now, but both make more sense than Andersen if the goal is to find a non-Marner path tied to a Hurricanes comeback.
What About Eichel?
Jack Eichel remains important because he is still listed among BetMGM’s biggest liabilities and still ranks highly in handle share. His handle share actually moved from 15.7% in the previous snapshot to 16.1% in the latest one. That suggests there is still meaningful exposure on him at the book level.
The problem is that Eichel’s betting case now has to go through Marner. That is not impossible, but it requires a change in the series narrative. Marner would either need to cool off significantly, or Eichel would need to deliver the kind of late-series moment that shifts the voter conversation. Until then, he is more relevant as a liability note than as the cleanest current betting angle.
To Summarize
Three days ago, the Conn Smythe market still felt competitive. The latest BetMGM snapshot looks different. Marner has gone from +150 to -250, his handle share has grown, and he now leads the ticket count as well. The market has become much more decisive.
If you are looking for value, the easy Marner prices are long gone. If you are looking for a case against him, it probably has to come through a Carolina comeback, with Hall or Stankoven making a late push. Andersen’s number tells you the goalie narrative has lost a lot of momentum. Eichel remains a liability for BetMGM, but his path likely needs Marner to give the market a reason to reconsider.
Right now, this is Marner’s award to lose.
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