The Kings get their first home game in this series, but Colorado is still favored by the market. The games have been tight on the scoreboard, but the Avalanche have been dictating play. We’re backing the Avs to take a 3-0 series lead.
Quick Pick
- Best Bet: Colorado Avalanche Moneyline -156
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
- Win Probability: Colorado 60% | Los Angeles 40%
- Best Value Angle: Colorado’s 5-on-5 dominance is real and repeatable, but both goalies are due for regression, making the under a secondary consideration worth monitoring.
Why This Bet Has Value
Game 2 told a story the scoreline almost buried. The Kings held a power play for nearly a quarter of the first 25 minutes of play, running 5 power plays and generating a penalty shot— and scored just 1 goal across 60-plus minutes. Colorado controlled the territorial play across both games and owns a 56.2 CF% and 59.3 xGF% at 5-on-5, while holding Los Angeles to just 2 goals, 5.69 expected goals, and 20 high-danger scoring chances through the first 2 games. Those numbers do not flatter the Kings, and they do not lie.
The market has Colorado at -156. That implies roughly 61% win probability — almost exactly where true probability sits given the underlying data. The edge here is modest, not enormous. But the qualitative case for Colorado is real: they have been the better team in every measurable dimension, they are the top seed in the West, and the Kings now face a must-win environment on home ice down 0-2. Desperate teams coming off back-to-back tight losses can absolutely steal a game 3, and the home crowd will be a factor. That is not a reason to fade the Avs, but it is a reason to keep confidence calibrated.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings
- Date & Time: April 23, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
- Series Score: Colorado leads 2-0
- Broadcast: HBO Max, truTV, TNT
Matchup Breakdown
Key Storylines
Anze Kopitar told Kings fans at the end of the regular season that he was saying goodbye, not farewell — that he would return in the playoffs. Game 3 at Crypto.com Arena delivers on that promise, and the atmosphere will be charged. But emotion and atmospheric advantage only convert into wins when they are paired with competent process, and Los Angeles has not found a way to manufacture sustained offense against a Colorado team that suffocates at 5-on-5.
The real story of this series is that it has been far closer than the standings suggested it would be — the tightness of the first 2 games has been shocking given the differential between these 2 teams in the standings — and that credit belongs largely to Anton Forsberg.
What Happened Last Game
Nicolas Roy scored at 7:44 of overtime, knocking in the rebound of Josh Manson’s shot past the left leg of Anton Forsberg during a goalmouth scramble. Before that, Gabriel Landeskog tied it 1-1 with 3:35 left in the third period, snapping Martin Necas’ cross-crease pass into the open net. Colorado was down 1-0 going into the final 4 minutes of regulation and still found a way to win. That resilience matters in a playoff series.
Quinton Byfield’s second-period penalty shot was stuffed by Scott Wedgewood, a moment that swung significant momentum and likely represents the Kings’ best chance of the game to shift the series. They could not convert it, and they could not hold a lead. The Kings had chances — they just could not finish them.
What Changed
The series now shifts to Los Angeles for Games 3 and 4, which removes Colorado’s home-ice advantage. The Kings’ interim coach D.J. Smith indicated after Game 1 that his team needed to be more physical against Colorado’s defensemen. Whether they have actually made that adjustment through 2 games is unclear — the underlying metrics suggest Colorado has continued to control play regardless. No confirmed lineup changes or injury news has emerged for either side ahead of Game 3. Goaltending appears set to remain the same: Forsberg for Los Angeles, Wedgewood for Colorado. Note that a Daily Faceoff article references a Wedgewood injury from a regular season game against Buffalo earlier this season — that incident appears to predate the playoffs, and Wedgewood has started and completed both playoff games without issue. His status for Game 3 is not flagged as a concern based on available reporting.
Recent Form
Colorado has won both games by 2-1 scores — one in regulation, one in overtime. In both cases, they conceded late and still managed to win. That combination of territorial control and late-game resilience is a pattern worth taking seriously. The Kings, for their part, have been competitive. Forward Trevor Moore noted that Los Angeles hung in there and could have won either night, and that is not an unreasonable read. But moral victories do not change series scores.
Goaltending
Anton Forsberg is sporting a .939 SV% through 2 games in this series, which is excellent — but it also sits well above his 4-year career benchmark of .901. Scott Wedgewood, meanwhile, is carrying a .960 SV% with 3.69 goals saved above expected through 2 games , a mark that is similarly unsustainable over the course of a series. Both goalies are overperforming relative to their career baselines, which means regression is likely for at least one of them in Game 3. That cuts both ways — it does not clearly favor one team over the other in terms of goaltending correction, but it does add pressure to an already live over/under market.
Key Skaters
Martin Necas has been held to a single assist despite being on the ice for 4.93 expected goals through 2 games. That kind of output-to-opportunity gap suggests Necas is due. Nathan MacKinnon had an assist on Lehkonen’s goal in Game 1 and has been active throughout, though he has not yet erupted offensively. For Los Angeles, Artemi Panarin scored a power-play goal with 2:22 left in regulation in Game 1 — his first as a King — and has racked up 84 points this regular season. If the Kings are going to steal a game at home, Panarin will need to be the difference-maker on the man advantage.
Team Performance & Metrics
| Metric | Colorado | Los Angeles | Betting Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last Game 5-on-5 | Territorial control, tied 1-1 in goals | Limited chances, won faceoffs | Edge: Colorado |
| Series Chance Quality | 59.3 xGF%, 56.2 CF% | 5.69 xG allowed across 2 games | Edge: Colorado |
| Special Teams | Goal allowed on PP Game 1 | 5 PPs in Game 2, 1 goal; penalty shot saved | Edge: Unclear — Kings generate but can’t convert |
| Goaltending | Wedgewood .960 SV% series, unsustainable | Forsberg .939 SV% series, also unsustainable | Unclear — regression likely for both |
| Matchup Edge | Necas, Landeskog providing secondary offense | Panarin only reliable finisher so far | Edge: Colorado depth |
| Regular Season Context | 55-16-11, Presidents’ Trophy winners | 35-27-20, 2nd wild card | Confirms Colorado as significant series favorite |
The expected game script in Los Angeles follows the same template as Denver: a tight, low-event game where Colorado controls the pace and Los Angeles scrambles to stay in it on the strength of Forsberg. The difference is that the Kings will have their crowd behind them for the first time in this series, and a desperate team in front of a live building can manufacture intensity that doesn’t show up in the metrics. Expect a game that stays close into the third period. Whether Colorado’s superior depth and 5-on-5 dominance ultimately wins out — or the Kings finally break through — is the core question.
Market & Odds Analysis
Colorado opened as road favorites and remain priced accordingly at -156. The over/under is set at 5.5 goals, with the over at -114 and the under at -106. Los Angeles is priced at +130 on the moneyline.
At -156, Colorado’s implied win probability sits at approximately 61%. Given their 59.3% expected goals share in this series and clear superiority in underlying metrics, that number is fair to slightly generous toward the Kings. There is no meaningful gap between implied and estimated probability on the moneyline — the market is pricing this correctly.
The total at 5.5 is more interesting. Both goalies are overperforming, both are due for some regression, and this series has produced 4 goals total across 2 games — both going under 5.5 comfortably. The under has cashed twice. However, betting the under purely on a sample of 2 games in a playoff series where we know goaltenders are inflated is shaky logic. If Forsberg regresses even modestly and Necas starts converting his chances, a 3-2 or 4-2 game gets us over 5 but not 5.5. It is a legitimate angle but not a strong lean.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Moneyline — Colorado | -156 |
| Moneyline — Los Angeles | +130 |
| Total | 5.5 (Over -114 / Under -106) |
| Puckline — Colorado -1.5 | Not confirmed, likely +160 or longer |
Key Edges
- Colorado’s 5-on-5 territorial dominance — 56.2 CF%, 59.3 xGF% over 2 games — is the most repeatable factor in this series and argues against any sharp pivot toward the Kings.
- Los Angeles has squandered high-value opportunities: a penalty shot stopped, a power play that generated volume but limited quality. Failing to convert in those moments against Colorado is dangerous in a low-scoring series.
- Martin Necas is significantly underperforming his expected output — nearly 5 expected goals worth of on-ice chances with just 1 assist. A Necas correction could accelerate Colorado’s scoring in Game 3.
Risk Factors
- Home-ice advantage is real in a playoff environment, and the Kings have not played in front of their crowd yet in this series. A motivated crowd can provide a genuine lift that is difficult to quantify.
- Both goalies are running at unsustainable rates. A Wedgewood regression — even to his career norm — opens the door for the Kings to score 3 or 4 goals, which would be enough to win given how tightly structured these games have been.
- Small sample size throughout: 2 playoff games is a limited evidence base, and a single fortunate bounce, goalie gaffe, or power play goal can swing these results entirely.
- No confirmed injuries or lineup changes for either team — but any last-minute scratches ahead of puck drop could meaningfully shift the calculus.
Prediction & Verdict Kings vs Avs
- Best Bet: Colorado Avalanche Moneyline -156
- Score Projection: Colorado 3, Los Angeles 2
- Win Probability: Colorado 60% | Los Angeles 40%
- Edge: Small
The case for Colorado is straightforward and grounded in what has actually happened in this series: they have been the better team at even strength in both games, they hold a significant structural advantage in forwards and depth, and Los Angeles has repeatedly been in position to level or take leads but has not been able to do it. That is a trend, not a coincidence.
The case for caution is equally grounded. Colorado -156 offers roughly break-even value given the true probability range — you are not getting rich here. The Kings are competitive, Forsberg has been genuinely excellent, and the home building adds a dimension that was absent in Denver. This is a bet made because the underlying edge is real and repeatable, not because the payout is attractive.
If you are looking for a reason to pass, the juice at -156 combined with the very real possibility of a Kings win on home ice makes this defensible as a no-bet situation. If you are playing, keep the sizing modest.
Final Score Prediction: Colorado 3, Los Angeles 2
Tonight, there are two additional games with Buffalo heading to Boston while the Senators face the Hurricanes.
