Opening Day brings fresh expectations, and the Pittsburgh Pirates head to New York to face the New York Mets on Thursday afternoon. This matchup features star pitcher in Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes looking to shut down a Mets club that made major offseason changes to try to become a major title contender. Before first pitch from Queens, you can find my Pirates vs Mets prediction right here.
Pirates vs Mets Pick
- Pick: New York Mets ML
- Confidence: 5 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Thursday, March 26, 2026, 1:15 PM
- Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs Freddy Peralta
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: NBC
Key Storylines
- The Mets hand the ball to Freddy Peralta, their newly acquired ace, coming off a 17-win season with a 2.70 ERA.
- Pittsburgh enters with Paul Skenes on the mound for Opening Day, who will hope for more wins after a 10-10 season where his individual numbers were incredible.
- This is the first game of the season for both of these teams and it is a great test for both of them as they try to notch an early win over a quality opponent to begin the year.
Pitching Matchup
Freddy Peralta headlines this game in his Mets debut. He was one of the most effective starters in baseball last season, finishing with elite strikeout numbers and limiting runs at a high level. His ability to miss bats consistently gives New York a strong advantage, especially against a Pirates lineup that ranked near the bottom of the league in several offensive categories.
Paul Skenes will get the ball for the Pirates, who led the league in ERA at 1.97 last season despite not getting a ton of wins due to the limitations of the roster around him. He will try to keep the Pirates in this game as well, with or without the help of his offense.
Key Players
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Brandon Lowe is making his debut for the Pirates in this game after spending the entirety of his career previously with the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Oneil Cruz hit just .200 last season and this year has to be better for the Pittsburgh CF.
New York Mets
- Bo Bichette is starting his Mets tenure in this game after making some deep playoff runs with the Toronto Blue Jays. Immediate production from him would be huge for the club.
- Marcus Semien is also making his debut with the Mets. Semien has hit 15 or more home runs in seven of the last eight seasons entering this year.
Pirates vs Mets Model Projection
- Score Projection: Pittsburgh Pirates 3 – New York Mets 5
- Win Probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 42%, New York Mets 58%
The pitching matchup in this game is pretty even, as both Peralta and Skenes are capable of great pitching on any given day. But the difference in quality on offense should move this game in favor of the Mets by a decent margin. While the Pirates have upside and could keep this competitive, the Mets are the safer play at home. With a better offense and a proven starter on the mound, I’m going to take New York to win this contest on the moneyline.
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