The last eight is set, and it is a genuinely compelling draw. Two heavyweight clashes, one potential upset waiting to happen, and a tie that looks one-sided on paper but rarely is. Here are my early predictions for each quarter-final, with the first legs kicking off on April 7th after the international break.
Summary
| Match | Early Pick |
|---|---|
| PSG vs Liverpool | PSG (+105) |
| Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid | Bayern Munich (-120) |
| Arsenal vs Sporting CP | Arsenal (-300) |
| Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona | Barcelona (-105) |
PSG (+105) vs Liverpool (-125)
The European Champions meet the English Champions in repeat of last year’s round of 16 tie. PSG arrive in stunning European form after dismantling Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate, a result that sent a statement to the rest of the competition.
Luis Enrique has built something coherent and relentless in Paris, and without the distraction of protecting superstar egos, the team functions beautifully. Much like last year, PSG come into this tie hitting form at the right time to make a run deep into the competition, with their attack of Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Ousmane Dembele being arguably the best in the world.
Liverpool, for their part, made light work of Galatasaray and remain dangerous going forward. Mohamed Salah continues to produce, Dominik Szoboszlai is starting to draw Steven Gerrard comparisons, and Florian Wirtz is beginning to show why The Reds parted with so much money for him. Needless to say, the Anfield leg will be electric.
But PSG’s defense has tightened considerably this campaign, and the head-to-head in European competition favors the French side at the Parc des Princes. While last year’s tie was only decided on penalties, this was only due to one of the all-time great goalkeeping performances from Alisson in Paris to keep Liverpool in the tie.
PSG to advance.
Bayern Munich (-120) vs Real Madrid (+100)
A fixture that barely needs an introduction. These two clubs have met in the Champions League knockout stages six times in the last twelve years, and the drama has never disappointed. Real Madrid knocked Bayern out last season in heartbreaking fashion, and you can be sure that is not forgotten in the Bayern dressing room.
Bayern are in excellent European form, beating Atalanta 4-1 in the round of 16 second leg to progress comfortably. Harry Kane has been decisive throughout the campaign and will be the central figure here. Real Madrid, however, have a habit of finding ways through in this competition that defies logic. T
heir away win at Manchester City in the previous round was yet another example of that. Vinicius Jr and Fede Valverde were instrumental against Pep Guardiola’s side, and they will be causing Vincent Kompany headaches already.
This is the closest call of the draw. The first leg is at the Bernabeu, which complicates things for Bayern. That said, I believe the Munich side are the better team right now, and the win probability data agrees, giving them a 55% chance to Real’s 45%.
Bayern to advance, but only just.
Arsenal (-300) vs Sporting CP (+250)
Arsenal‘s demolition of Bayer Leverkusen, the reigning Bundesliga champions, in the round of 16 was the performance of the knockout stages so far. A clean sheet at home and a controlled display that showed Mikel Arteta’s side have genuinely matured into a European outfit capable of going deep in this competition. Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka continue to pull the strings, and the defensive structure is as solid as it has been under Arteta.
Sporting arrive here as the surprise package of the last 16, beating Bodo/Glimt convincingly on aggregate after a stunning comeback from 3-0 down in Lisbon. They are organized, energetic, and dangerous on the counter.
But the step up in quality from Bodo/Glimt to Arsenal is enormous. The first leg in Lisbon carries a slight risk, given Sporting’s home record this season, but Arsenal’s away form in Europe has been dependable. The numbers heavily favor Arsenal, who carry a 73% win probability into the tie.
Arsenal to advance relatively comfortably.
Barcelona (-115) vs Atletico Madrid (+110)
An all-Spanish clash with continental stakes. Barcelona have been breathtaking at times this season, and their 7-2 aggregate win over Newcastle in the round of 16 was a statement of attacking intent. Lamine Yamal, still only 18, is already performing like a generational talent, and with Robert Lewandowski in intelligent support, Barca’s attack is the most feared in the competition.
Atletico Madrid, as always, will not be written off. Diego Simeone has built yet another resilient side, and their defensive structure makes life miserable for any opponent on an off night. But this Barcelona side is different from the ones Atletico have contained in recent years. They are quicker, more direct, and more relentless in pressing.
Atletico lost to Tottenham in the round of 16 second leg and scraped through, which suggests vulnerability. The win probability data gives Barcelona a 56% chance to progress, which feels about right.
Barcelona to advance.
Final Thoughts
My picks for the semi-finals: PSG, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, and Barcelona. However, with 3 of these ties on a knife edge according to bookmakers and the prediction markets, all it takes for everything to change is one goal, one injury, one stroke of luck. So keep an eye out for our quarter final previews and picks in April for the latest. May the best teams win.
