The NC State Wolfpack and Texas Longhorns will meet in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday night. Both teams did just enough to claim at-large bids from power conferences and will try to make it all happen here to advance to the round of 64. Who will move onto Thursday’s first-round action? Continue reading to get my NC State vs Texas prediction below.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: NC State Wolfpack vs Texas Longhorns
- Date & Time: Tuesday, March 17, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
- Venue: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio
- Broadcast: truTV
Key Storylines
This First Four contest features two teams that have shown flashes of high-level offense throughout the season. NC State finished the regular season 20-12 and built its attack around ball movement and perimeter efficiency. The Wolfpack averages 83.7 points per game while shooting 46.7% from the field and 38% from beyond the arc, numbers that reflect a group capable of putting pressure on opposing defenses. Texas enters with a roster built around size and rebounding dominance. Their physical interior presence creates second-chance opportunities and limits opponents to fewer possessions.
The teams already met earlier this season in a high-scoring contest that Texas won 102-97. That game featured excellent offensive production from both sides and showcased how evenly matched these rosters are. The Longhorns hit 16 three pointers in that meeting, while NC State dominated points in the paint. With such a narrow margin previously, bettors should expect another competitive contest.
Key Players
Texas Longhorns
- Dailyn Swain contributes across the stat sheet with scoring, rebounding, and playmaking. His versatility helps Texas maintain offensive flow and attack mismatches.
NC State Wolfpack
- Ven Allen Lubin anchors the frontcourt with 13.7 points and 7.1 rebounds per game while shooting an efficient 68.4% from the field. His interior presence will be crucial against Texas’ strong rebounding unit.
- Quadir Copeland runs the offense and averages 13.7 points along with 6.6 assists per game. His ability to create for teammates drives NC State’s offensive rhythm.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | NC State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 83.7 | 83.8 |
| Team Field Goal % | 47% | 49% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 34.7 | 37.7 |
| Assists Per Game | 15.6 | 12.3 |
Head to Head & Betting Trends
- Texas defeated NC State earlier this season, 102-97 in Maui.
- Texas is 16-15 against the spread so far this season.
- NC State is 16-16-1 against the spread entering the NCAA Tournament.
NC State vs Texas Pick & Model Projection
ATS PRO Score Projection: NC State 84 – Texas 80
ATS PRO Pick: NC State -1.5
ATS PRO Confidence: 3 out of 5
ATS PRO Win Probability: NC State 57%, Texas 43%
This game projects as one of the more competitive contests of the opening round. Texas has a slight edge on the glass and can stretch defenses with perimeter shooting, but NC State’s guard play and offensive balance give the Wolfpack several ways to generate points. Copeland’s ability to control tempo and Williams’ scoring versatility should allow NC State to counter Texas’ size advantage. I will go with NC State to win and cover the number in what should be the best game of the First Four.
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