The Dallas Mavericks travel to Louisiana on Monday night for a meeting with the New Orleans Pelicans in a game involving two Western Conference teams that have struggled this season. Both clubs sit near the bottom of the standings, yet the matchup still carries meaning with young players gaining valuable experience and both teams playing for pride. Dallas enters after a surprising offensive outburst in its previous game, while New Orleans is trying to bounce back from a defeat that slipped away in the closing seconds. Before tip-off in the Crescent City, continue reading for my Mavericks vs Pelicans prediction.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans
- Date & Time: Monday, March 16, 2026, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
Dallas arrives in New Orleans during a road-heavy portion of its schedule. The Mavericks have played several road games in a short stretch and fatigue could play a role here. Despite their difficult season, they recently produced one of their best offensive displays with a 130-point outing in a win over Cleveland. Rookie forward Cooper Flagg continues to show why he is viewed as a centerpiece for the franchise. His scoring and playmaking duties have grown as the season has progressed.
The Pelicans have also endured a difficult year, though they have shown flashes of offensive potential lately. They are averaging over 115 points per game and have several players capable of scoring in bunches. New Orleans nearly pulled out a late comeback win in its previous contest before mistakes in the closing seconds changed the result in a loss to the Houston Rockets. Playing at home should provide a boost as the Pelicans attempt to improve their record in the Smoothie King Center.
Key Players
New Orleans Pelicans
- Zion Williamson leads the Pelicans with around 21.7 points per game while shooting over 52% from the field. His ability to score near the rim and draw fouls gives New Orleans a reliable interior option.
- Trey Murphy III averages about 22.0 points per game and stretches the floor with efficient shooting. His scoring range forces defenses to guard well beyond the three-point line.
- Derik Queen contributes across multiple categories with about 7.1 rebounds and close to 4 assists per game. His passing from the frontcourt helps initiate offense.
Dallas Mavericks
- Cooper Flagg leads Dallas with roughly 20.1 points per game. The rookie has also shown playmaking ability and recently recorded a 27 point and 10 assist performance in a win over Cleveland.
- P.J. Washington averages close to 6.9 rebounds per game while adding scoring from the forward spot. His versatility allows Dallas to switch lineups and keep spacing.
- Ryan Nembhard provides steady ball handling with about 4.6 assists per game. His ability to organize the offense is valuable for a team developing younger talent.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Mavericks | Pelicans |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 113.2 | 115.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 118.1 | 119.8 |
| Team Field Goal % | 47% | 46% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 44.8 | 44.0 |
| Assists Per Game | 25.1 | 25.1 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- New Orleans leads the season series 2-1 over Dallas.
- This is the final game of the season between the Mavs and Pelicans.
- Dallas is 30-38 against the spread going into this contest.
- New Orleans is 39-28-1 against the spread entering this matchup.
Mavericks vs Pelicans Pick & Model Projection
- Score Projection: Mavericks 111 – Pelicans 116 ATS PRO
- Pick: Pelicans -4 ATS PRO
- Confidence: 3 out of 5 ATS PRO
- Win Probability: Mavericks 42%, Pelicans 58% ATS PRO
While both teams have experienced difficult seasons, New Orleans enters this game with several subtle advantages. The Pelicans have been slightly better on offense, scoring over 115 points per game, and they are playing at home, where their pace and scoring often improve. Dallas is also dealing with a demanding travel schedule, which can affect shooting efficiency and defensive focus. I will take the Pelicans to win this contest and cover the spread in this battle of struggling teams on Monday night.
More NBA Picks
